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Winter’s Grip Will Loosen

Winter's Grip Will Loosen

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2015 is off to an awfully cold start.  Not a single day since the beginning of the year has had normal or above-normal temperatures.  That's all about to change later this week, but we still have a few more wintry days ahead.

                A cold front is moving through the region tonight into early Monday.  This will usher in colder, but drier air.  A brief window may exist where drizzle turns to freezing drizzle in our far eastern and northern counties overnight.  However, the threat for any substantial travel issues with icing on roadways appears negligible until you make your way further into the Ozarks.  North winds through Wednesday are likely to keep us near or below freezing all the way until Thursday morning.  Arctic air, due to its dense and sometimes shallow nature is hard to be replaced.

                Little if any chance of moisture is found in the forecast until early Wednesday morning.  A shortwave of energy passing along the flow of the jet stream may bring a swath of light snow to the state.  This piece of energy will be weakening as it treks eastward and as it loses its punch, the coverage and intensity of snow will lessen.  While Tulsa and much of northeast Oklahoma appear to be in the direct path, the real question is how much will be left by the time it reaches us.  My best estimate of snowfall chances from midnight to midday Wednesday is show in the attached map.  I can't say it'll be a lot, but it does appear cold enough for snow and cold enough for some snow to accumulate.  It doesn't appear anyone will receive more than an inch or two of snow at this time.

                The cold air, possibly reinforced by a bit of a snow cover, will finally begin to recede on Thursday as sunshine and more southerly breezes return.  It's a big pattern shift that will warm us up nicely by the time we reach next weekend.  Highs in the 50s are possible by Friday.  Whatever snow falls and is able to stick won't stick around for long!  Even the outlook up to two weeks out keeps a warmer-than-normal pattern as the jet stream settles in at a more northern position.  It'll keep the Arctic air locked up in the poles and perhaps sliding south in the eastern Hemisphere of the world versus ours.   I don't know about you, but I'd much appreciate a mid-winter thaw.  We've only seen 2.4” of snow so far this winter, but our cold spells have been rather harsh and long.

                In the meantime, keep that winter gear on hand and don't be surprised to see a few snowflakes by Wednesday!  Follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and like my page on Facebook for all the latest.

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