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Thursday Morning Update

Tracking A Weekend System

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The cold front has moved south of the area this morning and we're returning to cooler air today and colder air Friday.   We managed to hit 80 yesterday officially from Tulsa International Airport, just two shy of an all-time daily record high.

The pattern is changing.   The southern stream upper air low near the Baja will slowly eject some lift into the area later tonight into Friday as deep moisture moves back across Texas into part of Oklahoma.   The deeper moisture plume more than likely remains to the south of northern OK, but we're still in the running for some light precipitation over a wide area Saturday.   Temps Saturday may start in the upper 30s and only finish in the lower to mid-40s with south winds around 10 to 15 mph.   Some of the models are holding back the precip until later Saturday afternoon and evening.   This won't change our pop on the map, but we may need to re-think our timing for the onset of this system.   This also could lead to slightly warmer air than we're advertising, but temps would remain in the 40s regardless.

Late Saturday night into Sunday morning the moisture plume will be moving eastward as another upper level trough advances across the central U.S.   This trough will effectively help to shove a surface cold front southward bringing colder air into the state Sunday and Monday.   We think Sunday temps will stay in the mid to upper 30s for the afternoon with winds around 10 to 25 mph from the north.   Some data now support most moisture exiting before any significant wintry precipitation could develop Sunday.   Other data keeps moisture into the region through the noon hour with a chance for some changing to mix or possibly some flurries.  I will continue to mention a slight chance for some sleet-snow mixture for a small window near or west of the Tulsa metro for the mid-morning to early-afternoon period.   The confidence for this portion of the forecast remains low regarding any precip potential, but the confidence for a cold day is high.

Temps Monday should also remain chilly with morning lows in the upper teens to lower 20s followed by highs in the upper 30s.   We'll rebound to near normal (upper 40s) Tuesday before possibly dealing with more cold air by the end of next week.

Thanks for reading the abbreviated version of the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a good day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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