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Thursday Morning Update

A Wild Ride Ahead

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The cold front that rolled over the area yesterday is to our south this morning but colder air will reside today across the northeastern third of the state with sunshine, northeast winds, and low relative humidity.   This cold air-mass will rapidly slide eastward with warmer conditions moving into the area Friday and for most of Saturday.   A stronger surge of shallow cold air will arrive Saturday afternoon and evening bringing colder air back to the state and setting the stage for a precipitation event early next week.  Some wintry weather impacts will be possible.  

Sunshine with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s will be likely today across the majority of northeastern OK with some slightly warmer readings across the southeastern quadrant of Oklahoma.  A few clouds will arrive around 2pm to 5pm this afternoon.  Wind speeds will be around  15 mph this morning and lowering to near 10 mph this afternoon as a surface ridge of high pressure migrates eastward out of the region.   Warmer air at the surface and aloft will quickly spread from the southwest to northeast Friday with morning lows in the 20s and daytime highs in the upper 50s to near 60.  

Saturday will feature a strong cold front moving southward by afternoon.   This front may enter far northern OK and stalling a few hours before moving across the rest of the region Saturday night.   This could present a very tight gradient of temperatures Saturday ranging from near the upper 60s in Tulsa and upper 40s along the OK-Kansas state line region.   As the front moves southward, the colder and shallow air will flow southward across the entire area.   Sunday morning will start in the 20s and 30s and end in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Sunday evening a disturbance in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will begin approaching the southern plains.   The cold front will slowly move northward, but the location to the northeast of the boundary will remain below freezing.   Some precipitation is likely to develop Sunday night late into pre-dawn Monday.   Current indications point toward a small window for some light freezing rain for a few hours pre-dawn Monday morning across northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas.   About mid-morning, the boundary will lift slightly northward and temps will move into the upper 30s or lower 40s.   This would keep precipitation all liquid in the form of a cold rain during most of the day.   Monday evening a second disturbance will approach the region and colder air will slide southward, effectively shoving the cold front back across most of the state Monday night into Tuesday morning.   Available moisture would turn from rain to sleet and quickly to snow.   The various model outputs do offer signals for some accumulations late Monday night into Tuesday across portions of the state, including part of extreme eastern OK.   But we're still not confident that model solutions are correct with the amount of moisture that will be available once the 2nd surge of colder air arrives Monday late into Tuesday morning.   We'll continue to mention the chances for precip early next week and would encourage you to remain aware of the weather once we move into the early part of next week.  Current model solutions would offer a stout winter event Tuesday for portions of the state.

Confidence is high that another arctic air-mass will arrive next week that may be extremely cold for the northeastern part of the country.   Some model data for northeastern OK suggests temps Wednesday morning will start in the single digits and finish with highs in the upper 20s.   Stay tuned!

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone


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