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Break Out the Umbrellas

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TULSA, Oklahoma -

After that fog burned off this morning, turned out to be a mighty nice day today. Notice the max/min temperature map across the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Today's sunny skies really warmed things up, but the sunshine will be replaced by clouds for Thursday and Friday as a system moves northward from the Gulf of Mexico bringing clouds and another round of rain and showers.

The heaviest showers and rainfall will be further east into Arkansas where Flood Watches have already been issued, and we will be on the western fringe of that heavier activity. Although the rain is expected to be widespread, the amounts should be generally less than ½”. Notice the 3 day QPF map for example which shows a sharp W-E gradient in the rainfall amounts here in E OK and into Arkansas. Given that very sharp gradient, any shift one way or the other could make a big difference in the amounts for any one location.

Fair skies for much of the night tonight will be replaced by increasing cloud cover by early morning and that should minimize the fog potential for tonight. Temperatures will start off in the 40s, but as the cloud cover increases and thickens up during the day, afternoon highs should range from near 60 in the SE corner to near 70 in the NW corner of the viewing area. Rain will also be spreading into the SE counties by early morning and gradually working its way northward as the day progresses. There are still some inconsistencies in the guidance regarding just how far west the precipitation will spread, but for now will call for at least a slight chance as far west as the I-35 corridor with the chances rapidly increasing eastward from there.

NE winds and the cloudy skies will also prevail right on through Friday along with a good chance of showers. This is a relatively slow moving system so some showers may linger into Friday night or even Saturday morning before we get a chance to dry out. However, the weekend does look promising with improving weather during the day Saturday and lots of sunshine for Sunday into early next week. Also, our winds will be returning to a more SW direction on Sunday and Monday which will help to really warm things up as you can see on our forecast page.

Our next cold front is still on schedule to arrive by early Tuesday morning but after that the guidance rapidly diverges. The GFS brings that front through with minimal cooling and then follows it up with another round of showers by the middle of the week. The Euro on the other hand has been a little more consistent with somewhat stronger cooling which persists longer and the next round of showers not expected until along about that following weekend.

As you can see on the 8-14 day outlook maps, the trend certainly seems to support cooler conditions during that time period.

Stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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