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Wednesday Morning Update

Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Break In Rain Today

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The mid-level low that has been responsible for the rain across the region the past few days is now exiting the state.   A few showers along with some pockets of mist and drizzle may linger across eastern OK early this morning, but I think we'll get a decent break later today ( for most folks) until the next upper level system nears the area Thursday into the weekend.   Temperatures today will move into the upper 60s and lower 70s along with mostly to partly cloudy conditions.    The rain and thunderstorm chances will remain Thursday night through Saturday midday with improving weather Monday. 

Yesterday's system was indeed fickle!   Numerous folks dealt with passing showers throughout the day, but the Tulsa metro seemed to miss-out until late in the afternoon.   This morning a few lingering showers and pockets of drizzle are noted on the radar but they should quickly move eastward as the mid-level feature exits the region.    We're already seeing our next big rain maker heading in our direction.

The main trough across the Pacific Northwest is diving southward this morning and will arrive over the four corners region later tonight and Thursday.   This low pressure system aloft is forecast to become " cut-off" from the upper air flow for a day or two before moving eastward Friday and Saturday.   The result will be active weather for the southern plains including the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms across the state.   Today the data suggest the low will become even slower and not clear the state until Sunday.  

The first batch will fire up Thursday afternoon and evening across the high plains of Texas and Southeastern Colorado while moving eastward Thursday evening.   A few of these storms will more than likely be severe across western or northwestern-western OK Thursday night but decrease intensity once they arrive in eastern OK late Thursday evening into Friday morning.   We think most of Thursday will remain dry for the metro and eastern OK before the pops increase by late evening into early Friday morning.

Friday morning should start wet with showers and thunderstorms across eastern OK.   These should migrate away from the region by midday and we may have a few hours of dry weather by midday.   Later in the afternoon and evening additional showers and storms are expected to develop as the upper air low starts moving eastward into the state.   A surface area of low pressure should develop across Texas and move quickly northward early Saturday morning.   Showers and storms will remain in the forecast during this period before the upper feature moves away from the state Sunday afternoon and evening.    The upper air flow is expected to transition to a northwesterly flow pattern for a few days next week before becoming westerly and southwesterly by the end of next week.   We'll have at least two systems nearing the state next week with additional storm chances.

Temperatures for the next few days will be mild with morning lows in the 40s and 50s with daytime highs in the 70s.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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