Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Rain, Cooler Temps In The Forecast
TULSA, Oklahoma - A front will be nearing the area later tonight and remain near the region through Wednesday. This should result in the chance for pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall near the region. A flash flood watch has been posted for part of northeastern OK beginning tonight and continuing until Wednesday evening.
Temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s today along with temperature heat index values near 100 to 104. South winds in the 10 to 25 mph range will offer some relief from the heat index values and a few isolated showers or storms will be possible. The boundary will be nearing the state tonight and should be positioned near western o central OK aligned from the southwest to northeast. The upper air flow will become nearly parallel to the boundary. The tail end of a trough located across the Midwest into the southeastern Canada region will brush the central plains later tonight and tomorrow. A weak disturbance located across the desert southwest will move eastward and enter the state (or near the state) Tuesday. All of these features should combine to produce thunderstorms including the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall near the boundary. This front should be located to our west tonight and during the day Tuesday but will slowly move eastward Tuesday afternoon and evening. A surface wave (area of low pressure) is expected to develop along the boundary Tuesday night and lift northeast Wednesday morning. The result should be increasing chances of rain and thunderstorms across portions of eastern OK including the threats for moderate to heavy rainfall. Precipitation from 3 to 5 inches may be possible with some higher localized amounts. A few strong storms with damaging down-burst of wind can’t be ruled out, but the main threat will be heavy rainfall in some locations resulting in localized flooding.
Temperatures today are expected to remain warm with highs in the lower 90s along with partly cloudy conditions. But the expected cloud cover and rain-cooled boundaries should result in temperatures well below the seasonal average from Tuesday and Wednesday. Morning lows in the lower 70s will be followed by highs around 80 to 82 along with relatively light winds. As the above mentioned disturbances lift away from the area Wednesday the boundary will retreat northward and warmer air will move back across the state. Lows in the lower 70s will be followed by highs in the lower to even mid-90s Thursday through the weekend. Gusty south winds should return Friday through the weekend with partly to mostly sunny conditions. A mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to develop and keep most of the state void of precipitation during this period. Long range data also supports the ridge retro-grading again early next week with another northwest flow pattern nearing the northeastern part of the state. This may bring additional storm chances back to the state next week.
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