Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Heat Returns This Weekend
TULSA, Oklahoma - Our main issue for the next several days will center on a mid-level ridge of high pressure building across Oklahoma. The result will be afternoon highs ranging into the mid and upper 90s both today and tomorrow. Temperatures this weekend may reach triple digits for the first time officially in the Tulsa Metro. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are more than likely going to be required for a large portion of Oklahoma through the weekend.
Yesterday morning’s thunderstorm activity deposited and outflow boundary that is now to the south of the Tulsa Metro. There will remain a very low chance of a few isolated thunderstorms near these features for the next 24 to 36 hours. We’re tracking a few isolated storms this morning in this quadrant of the state. Locations from Muskogee to Tahlequah southeast could experience a shower or storm. The stronger cells should be confined from Sallisaw to Ft. Smith where some hail and gusty winds will be possible.
But the chance for any location across eastern Oklahoma will remain at or below 20%. There will be a slight chance for a small complex of thunderstorms to brush extreme southeastern Kansas and northwestern Arkansas late tonight and early Friday morning. I anticipate that most, if not all, of this activity will remain out of the state of Oklahoma. Locations around Miami may experience these storms late tonight and pre-dawn Friday.
Short-term data indicates a surface area of low pressure may reside near southern Kansas this weekend. A surface boundary may also be located across part of the Central Plains states. A mid level ridge of high pressure should continue to build across most of Oklahoma and Texas. This is a very common pattern for mid-August. Our temperatures will continue to climb it to the upper 90s and a few locations should be able to reach triple digits this weekend. The high amount of low-level moisture residing across northeastern and eastern Oklahoma is unusual for early August. Dew point temperatures in the seventies combined with projected temperature and humidity values will yield temperature heat index values from 105 to 114 this weekend. Our friends at the National Weather Service have already issued heat advisories for a large portion of the state. I anticipate advisories or possibly excessive heat warnings will be required for a large majority of central and eastern Oklahoma continuing through the weekend. You should remain aware of the growing heat and humidity potential this weekend, and remain hydrated for outdoor activities.
GFS and Euro data also support the mid-level Ridge flattening by Sunday and Monday. This is also somewhat unusual for this time of the year. This would allow a surface boundary to move from southern Kansas into part of northern Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday of next week. A few showers or storms would be a possibility if this scenario occurs. Temperatures may drop a few degrees Monday and Tuesday due to the presence or passage of this boundary across parts of northern and eastern Oklahoma. A frontal passage in August would be highly unusual. I will include a minor temperature reduction early next week along with a wind shift indicating the front nearing part of northern Oklahoma.
Temperatures today will move into the middle and upper 90s across northeastern Oklahoma with a few locations hitting 100 across far southeastern sections of the state.
Thank you for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog. Have a super great day.