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Dick Faurot Weather Blog: Chances Of Rain Through The Weekend

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Hard to believe this is August in Oklahoma. Notice the max/min temperature map for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. That’s right, some locations were in the 40s this morning and a number of record lows were set. To keep things in perspective, here in Tulsa our normal temperature range at this time of year is 93/71 for the max/min and today we recorded 83/56; the 56 is just a few degrees above the record for this morning.

Since this is August, these pleasantly cool conditions will not last long and temperatures will be rebounding in the days ahead. Also, clouds will be on the increase tonight which, together with a light SE breeze, should result in morning lows in the low-mid 60s - much warmer than this morning but still below normal. The increasing clouds will also help hold daytime temperatures to the mid-80s, which is also well below normal. Along with the increase in cloud cover will come at least a chance of some showers and possibly a few thundershowers, a few possible by early morning and another chance late in the day or overnight.

That will carry over into the morning hours of Saturday when a few late night or early morning showers/storms will be possible. The various model solutions have not been very consistent from run to run, nor from one model to another, but right now it looks like a better chance of showers/storms will accompany a cool front moving through the state Sunday morning with some of that activity perhaps lingering into the Sunday night and Monday morning time frame. Total precipitation from these systems could be rather generous as the 5-day QPF map suggests an inch or two will be possible.

Also, temperatures will be impacted by these systems, the associated cloud cover, and shifting winds. As you can see on our forecast page, Saturday looks to have enough sunshine along with a brisk southerly wind for temperatures to be near normal for a change. The wind shift with the frontal boundary on Sunday will not be nearly as dramatic as what we have just experienced, but temperatures will be held below normal going into early next week.

Mostly sunny skies and a return to southerly winds will bring temperatures back to more seasonal levels by the middle of next week and that trend will likely continue through the rest of the month. Notice the 8-14-day outlooks for example which suggest above normal temperatures and below normal chances of precipitation. With that in mind, it would be nice if the 5-day QPF map verifies as it appears we will be mostly dry for quite some time after that.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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