TULSA, Oklahoma - Good morning.   We are tracking an opportunity for a few showers or thunderstorms during the next several hours across northern Oklahoma.   Temperatures are mild with mostly cloudy conditions and fog across part of southeastern and east-central OK.   Fog will end this morning as the front moves rapidly across the area.  Cloud cover will decrease from the west to the east through mid-day allowing sunshine and beautiful weather this afternoon. Daytime highs will move into the upper 60s north and lower 60s far east along with a gusty northwest wind around 10 to 15 mph.   After a very chilly Thursday morning, temperatures will be in the mid-60s before a stronger storm system arrives Friday bringing a high likelihood of rain and thunderstorm activity to eastern Oklahoma.

The upper air flow has allowed a mid-level system to move across the northern and central Oklahoma this morning. This system will quickly exit our area this morning.   Now through 10 a.m. a few showers or storms will be a possibility as the wave moves across eastern OK. Enough mid-level instability will exist for some lightning and thunder with a few cells.

Mostly clear skies and dry air will allow Thursday morning lows to drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s across most of eastern Oklahoma. After a pleasant but cool Thursday afternoon, our attention will be focused on a strong storm system arriving for the weekend.

A broad trough located across the Pacific Northwest and extending through the desert Southwest will slowly move eastward over the next 36 to 48 hours. In response showers and storms will develop Thursday night across Eastern New Mexico in West Texas and spread into western Oklahoma Friday morning. Friday midday to early afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will approach northern and eastern Oklahoma.   Rich low-level moisture will continue to move across north eastern Texas in southeastern Oklahoma as this system advances near our area. The possibility will exist for pockets of moderate to heavy rain across the Red River Valley region of the state.   This rainfall will continue across northeastern Oklahoma Friday afternoon and evening and could possibly last through the first half of Saturday.   Data this morning indicate the system Saturday may move eastward by early afternoon allowing for a period of dry weather Halloween evening across eastern Oklahoma.   This timing may change so please check back later for updates.  

Sunday offers some controversy in the data.   I'll spare all the different scenarios.   Our forecast will keep a chance for shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern Oklahoma at least through mid-morning Sunday before moving eastward Sunday afternoon and evening. After the system exits the state Sunday, the overall upper air pattern will support a moderate warming trend next week.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog. Have a super great day!

Alan Crone