Alan Crone's Weather Blog: MidWeek Warm Up

Cold temperatures will remain this morning but we’ll see a minor and noticeable warm-up compared to the weekend for today with highs in the mid to upper 40s.   A weak surface front moves across part of northern OK tomorrow and this will bring the highs down into the lower 40s.   Another warm-up will remain Thursday and Friday before our next cold snap and storm system brings a chance for some showers Friday into Saturday morning.   We may have another system nearing the state late Sunday into Monday.

The upper air pattern continues to circulate cold air around the main upper level low positioned across Hudson Bay in Canada.   This main cyclonic flow will remain and several disturbances will have a chance to rotate near the state this week.   One will pass the area later tonight into tomorrow helping to push the weak cold front across the state Tuesday.   A stout looking upper level wave-vortex will also arrive from the inter-mountain region Wednesday into the evening hours but data surprisingly does very little with this system other than producing a few clouds.   At this point, the higher impact for any precipitation may remain too far north of the state.

Friday into Saturday two distinct disturbances, one in the polar stream and the other in the southern split, will move across the southern and central plains.   A surface area of low pressure should develop in response to falling pressures Thursday night into Friday.  This low will move across the state Friday or Friday night.   South winds Thursday and Friday will attempt to increase some low level moisture but the higher likelihood for any showers Friday may reside across extreme eastern OK and only for the early morning hours.   As the northern stream disturbance nears the state, much colder air will arrive with a very low chance for some wintry precip across either southern Kansas or northern OK late Friday night into Saturday.    We’ll be attempting to fine-tune details as the event draws near.   At this hour, the system appears minor in nature.   We’ll keep only a small mention for this system.  This morning’s data has another system late Sunday night into Monday that could also bring some precip back to part of the state.   The run to run data is very inconsistent.   We’ll make a mention of the possibility here on the post, but will likely not include this low pop for Sunday night on the big 7 day map at this juncture in the forecast cycle.

Regarding this past weekend’s winter system.  

The amount of precipitation was very low for most locations across eastern OK.   Only a small strip across the Creek, Tulsa, and Washington County areas received any accumulating snow.     While some areas near the metro experienced falling snow for a few hours Saturday, the light snowfall rate allowed the precipitation to melt shortly after contact.   The snowfall rate was much higher in the few small bands that moved across part of the metro allowing for some 1 to near 3 inch accumulations.    The snowfall rate was able to overcome the rate of melting and the official tally for the metro goes down at 2.5” inches of snow. 

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone KOTV