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Monday Morning Update

Alan Crone Weather Blog: Super Monday Weather But Another System Soon

Posted: Updated:
Alan Crone Alan Crone

Good morning. We’re under freeze warnings this morning.   We’ll see increasing wind conditions Tuesday with elevated fire danger issues.  And we’ll be tracking the potential for severe thunderstorm development Wednesday across part of eastern OK.  Just a typical early spring forecast!

I hope you were able to enjoy some of the Sunday Easter weather yesterday after the morning rains exited the area.   The clouds cleared with some sunshine but the chilly air remained.  

A surface ridge of high pressure is located near and east of the area this morning.   Clear sky, light winds, and dry air has allowed temperatures to drop to just above the local dew point and freeze warnings are underway for a few more hours this morning across northern OK.  The surface ridge will move eastward of the area this afternoon allowing a return of south winds around 5  to 15 mph.   Sunshine and pleasant weather will prevail.

Tuesday into Wednesday a strong upper level system will develop and move across the Rockies by early this week.   A significant piece of energy is forecast to eject and develop into a closed type low out of northeastern Colorado and phase with a short-wave dropping southward from Canada.   This will create windy conditions Tuesday with highs in the lower 70s along with sunshine and a few clouds by afternoon.  Low level dew points will be increasing Tuesday morning to midday but the fire danger may continue to be elevated Tuesday afternoon across central or eastern OK before the moisture arrives across the state.  

Wednesday another dry line is expected to develop southward from the surface low that will be located across eastern Colorado or western Kansas.   This dry line will sweep eastward during the day and approach the eastern section of the state around sunset.   A cold front will also be developing and eventually will catch-up with the dry line by late Wednesday night.  South to southeast surface winds are expected to provide ample convergence along the dry line and strong winds changing direction and speed with height are likely to develop across central and eastern OK as the main storm system begins ejecting into the central plains.  

The end result may be a round of severe storms with all modes (hazards) of severe weather possible. There may also be a capping inversion in place for the first half of the day across central OK but this CAP will probably erode as colder air aloft spreads across the state.

Most model data has converged on a Wednesday night passage with Thursday now being free of precip with colder air for the end of the week into the weekend likely. This is also the weekend that significant cold air will arrive across the northern and Midwestern part of the nation but it appears the bulk of this air mass will remain to the northeast of the state. After a cool weekend, the temperatures will improve early next week with pleasant conditions.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

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