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Frost Possible by Saturday Morning.

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QPF QPF
8-14T 8-14T
8-14P 8-14P

Got a little crazy yesterday and the damage surveys are still being conducted as I write.  The damage done by yesterday’s tornado(s) and the intensity rating(s) will be updated at newson6.com, so recommend checking the web site from time to time.  It may take another day or two before the all the necessary damage surveys are completed by the good folks at the local NWS office as they are tasked with the responsibility of making the determination regarding the number of tornadoes and the path length and intensity.

In the meantime, we will be blessed with a much quieter weather pattern in the days ahead.  In fact, as you can see on our forecast page, we have little or no chance of additional rainfall for this forecast period.  Having said that, there will still be some issues to deal with.

In the first place, we will be much cooler tonight through the Saturday morning time frame as a surge of cooler air will arrive over the next 24 hours.  Brisk NW winds again on Friday will bring the cooler air to offset what should be a lot of sunshine during the day.  There will be some lingering clouds tonight but more sun than clouds for Friday.  Temperatures will drop to near 40 tonight and only near 60 for Friday afternoon as compared to the normal diurnal range of 68/45 at this time of year.

Tender plants will likely require protection for Saturday morning as temperatures drop into the low-mid 30s which means a light freeze for the colder valleys and protected locations and frost most other locations.  Brisk W-NW winds again that afternoon but with lots of sunshine should push the daytime highs in the upper 60s to near 70.  After that, gusty SW winds on Sunday will really warm things back up but moisture will be very slow to return.

I mention the lack of moisture because another frontal boundary will arrive Monday but it will not amount to much more than a wind shift.  No rain is expected with the system and temperatures will still be well above normal that afternoon.

Gusty southerly winds return on Tuesday to really warm things back up, but again moisture will be slow to return in advance of yet another boundary that is expected to arrive Wednesday morning.  This system will be stronger and could wring out a few showers and perhaps some thunder.  Latest/greatest model data has actually sped up the timing somewhat which means even more of a limitation on the available moisture.  Thus, will only keep a very low chance of rain for now and see how subsequent model runs handle this system.  As you can see on the 7 day QPF map, the state is pretty much high and dry for the next week.

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Since the system Wed morning is a stronger system, then the cooling behind it will be more evident for the Thu/Fri time frame, but that will be followed by another warm up as we get further into Spring.  Notice the 8-14 day outlooks suggest temperatures will be near to above normal across the state for that time frame and we may see another round of more active weather by late in the period.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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