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Warm And Windy Tuesday

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Temperatures today made it hard to believe we had a gusty NE wind all day long.  Despite those winds, temperatures were still at least 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.  By the way, the normal max/min is 69/46 and of course steadily rising as the days go by and we get further into Spring.

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The NE winds of today did serve to keep very dry air over us even though the air was certainly not any cooler.  That will result in clear skies overnight and with light winds, temperatures will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s to start the day Tuesday.  However, those light overnight winds will not last long as they will quickly return to a more SE direction by morning followed by strong southerly winds during the day.  Those strong winds together with very warm temperatures and humidity levels dropping into the 30% range will create another high fire danger situation even though things are starting to green up.

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Another frontal boundary will then arrive during the late night hours of Tuesday night into the morning hours of Wednesday followed by gusty NW winds for Wednesday and somewhat cooler conditions.  However, the lack of adequate moisture return will limit the rain potential as you can see on our forecast page.  There will be a chance of showers with the front and perhaps even a rumble of thunder, but the better chances and heavier rainfall will be well east of us as you can see on the 5 day QPF map.  I used the 5 day map as it appears we may be in for a pattern change before the coming weekend is over and that would result in better chances of rain by then.

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At any rate, between now and then the quiet weather will continue.  The northerly winds mentioned above for Wednesday will not cool us off much and temperatures will still be above normal.  Southerly flow returns on Thursday but another weak boundary will arrive on Friday with a return to northerly winds.  This system will be moisture starved also so no mention of rain with that system. 

Any cloud cover will be largely confined to the Tuesday night time frame along and ahead of that cool front and otherwise there will be plenty of sunshine through the rest of this week.  Gusty southerly winds will return for the Sat/Sun time frame but this time the pattern suggests a better chance that deeper moisture will be able to return.  Latest/greatest data runs at least have the possibility of showers/storms for Sunday into Monday, the timing remains uncertain but at least the chances are there.

In fact, looking at the longer range guidance suggests the pattern change aloft will extend into all of next week with temperatures expected to drop below normal for a change.  It also suggests a return to a more unsettled pattern which is badly needed for the more western counties where drought is rearing its ugly head.  Will have more about that in the days ahead. 

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In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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