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Chilly Next Few Days.

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What a change a day can make.  Notice the 24 hour temperature change, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, as of right after the noon hour today which shows how the cooler air has settled in over the state.  However, that cool down just brought us back down to near what is normal for this time of year.

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That has also produced a mighty short thermometer today.  So far, the max/min here in Tulsa has been 47/38 as compared to the normal values of 49/28.  However, we will be much colder than that 38 we had this morning before the midnight hour tonight and in fact should be close to freezing by then.

Look for clear skies and a light NW breeze through the night tonight to result in morning lows generally in the mid 20s, so somewhat colder than normal to start the day Thursday.  Lots of sunshine will be the general rule not only for Thursday but much of this forecast cycle, but a continued NW surface wind will keep our daytime highs on the chilly side going into the weekend.  Even so, those numbers are actually closer to normal for this time of year.  Look for afternoon temperatures to top out in the mid 40s for Thursday afternoon, but slowly moderating after that.

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As you can see on our forecast page, we will maintain a general NW flow at the surface right on through the day Sunday and that is generally the case with the upper level flow as well.  That will keep any moisture from returning and therefore the sunny skies mentioned above.  By Monday, our surface winds will be returning to a more SW direction in advance of a weak front that looks to be arriving later in the day Tuesday.  With the dry air in place, that should result in another chilly start to the day Monday but those SW winds will also produce a nice warm-up with afternoon temperatures likely to make it into the 60s. 

That weak frontal boundary on Tuesday should arrive late enough for a nice warm-up for the afternoon hours once again followed by somewhat cooler conditions for Wednesday.  As mentioned earlier, moisture will have a hard time returning so that front will not have anything to work with and it will be a dry system.  In fact, as you can see on the 7 day QPF, the overall weather pattern for much of the U.S. looks to be pretty quiet.

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Looking further down the road, the 8-14 day outlook continues to suggest warmer than normal conditions on average as we go into that first week of February.  However, by next weekend some of the longer range guidance does suggest at least a chance of rain.  For that reason, the precipitation outlook for the 8-14 day time frame has us on the western fringe of at least a chance for some scattered showers.  As mentioned above, the overall pattern at the surface and aloft is making it difficult for any quality moisture to make into the state anytime soon.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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