A fire weather warning is in effect for several western and central Oklahoma counties from noon to 6 p.m. Monday, and a 30-day burn ban has been issued for McIntosh and Latimer counties.
Fire danger will be high later today especially west of Tulsa.
We’re tracking a few storm systems over the next week but the chance for showers and storms will remain on the low side for the week. Low level moisture is streaming back into the area this morning and patches of mist, drizzle and fog will be likely for some locations through mid-morning. Highs this afternoon will reach the lower to mid-70s along with gusty south to southwest winds from 15 to near 30 mph.
A few storms will remain a possibility later tonight along and east of highway 69-75 but a strong layer of warm-air aloft may suppress most activity. While the chance for a storm will remain low for the metro, a slightly higher chance will remain for extreme eastern OK, where a few strong to severe storms may occur later tonight. This system (the forcing) will be exiting the area pre-dawn Tuesday. Our window of opportunity will remain rather slim beginning around 9 p.m. tonight and ending around 3 a.m. Tuesday morning.
A few showers or storms may occur this morning across far southeastern OK or western Arkansas but this activity is expected to remain well away from northeastern OK, including the Tulsa metro. The fire danger will remain slightly elevated today due to the influence of the strong winds, but the increasing low level humidity values will off-set what would normally be a very high fire spread day.
A dry line-pacific front feature will move across the area later tonight and will pass through eastern OK just before dawn Tuesday. This will bring much drier air back to the eastern third of the state Tuesday, but the wind speeds are not expected to be exceptionally strong post-dry line Tuesday. Regardless, the fire danger Tuesday may end up even higher than today due to the dry air, northwest winds, and the influence of the dry and dormant conditions. Highs Tuesday could still be in the mid-70s.
Wednesday into Thursday yet another front will be moving across the central plains with a significant surge of colder air likely to envelope the upper Midwest through the Missouri Valley and eastward into the northeastern third of the nation. Northeastern Ok will receive a glancing blow of this colder air with Thursdays temps starting in the 20s and ending with highs in the upper 40s.
But just as quickly as this colder air arrives, warmer air will develop to our southwest and invade the southern plains Friday into the weekend with yet another robust and noticeable warming trend. Temps this Friday will start in the upper 30s or lower 40s and end with highs in the 70s. Even warmer air will be likely for the weekend with lows near 50 Saturday morning with daytime highs into the upper 70s.
Most data support yet another front moving across the state either Saturday night or Sunday bringing a modest cool down with Sunday morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the 50s, still above the seasonal average. There may be a shower or two Saturday night or Sunday but the odds will remain rather low.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!
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