February To End on a Warm, Potentially Stormy Note

It’s only fitting that a February that resembled April will end with the threat of severe weather. Spring-like temperatures have returned after a seemingly rare visit of chilly conditions over the weekend. This late-month rally will likely make this the second warmest February on record. With the warm-up comes a return of moisture as well. Within this pattern, we have not just one but three opportunities for storms in the next 36 hours. Here’s the break-down.

                Our first round of showers and storms comes this evening. Likely centered to the southeast of Tulsa, only low chances are in place tonight for any inclement weather. Powerful winds just above the surface will fire up these showers or storms through late evening. The only threat these will bring is some hail and frequent lightning. Aside from that, it will be a mild and breezy evening.

                Moving on to Tuesday, we face the main event in two possible episodes, both coming late in the day. Gusty south winds will continue to enhance the warmth and moisture levels here in eastern Oklahoma. This sets the stage for instability – the fuel for any storms. However, there are two factors that will make storms harder to come by. The first is the CAP – a layer of warm air aloft that suppresses rising motion needed to create a storm. The second is a lack of surface convergence where winds come together and create that lift. Should any storms fire by late afternoon or early evening ahead of an advancing cold front, we could end up with fast-moving supercell thunderstorms capable of high winds, large hail and perhaps a tornado. However, a number of our computer models don’t show any storms forming in our region, which keeps our storm chances fairly low.

                The second round is a bit more likely later in the evening after 9pm on Tuesday. Storms may fire along that cold front as it presses southeast across our area. Once again, there is some question if these storms will fire over eastern Oklahoma or if they will occur further east over the Ozarks where conditions are a bit more favorable for this. This late evening round, should it form, would mainly bring a high wind and perhaps a hail threat. The fast-moving nature of these storms will limit rainfall and certainly any flooding potential. For those taking part in any Fat Tuesday festivities in our area, just be aware of the potential for a quick-forming storm or two. Below, you’ll see the risk area for severe weather on Tuesday. We are at the western fringe of this threat given the timing and orientation of this storm system.  There’s a good chance you’ll end up with nothing more than a few showers if that at all. However, several opportunities for stronger storms should put you in the mindset of being prepared for severe weather season, which is rapidly approaching.

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As the new month rolls in, any storms in the area will quickly roll out. Gusty northwest winds behind the front will bring in March like a lion as temperatures take a tumble back to seasonable norms for midweek. A few nights ahead may allow us to dip below freezing by a few degrees.  As we head into late week and the weekend, however, you guessed it, we warm back up as south winds return. The end of the week will pose a risk for wildfire spread. While we our plant life is jumping into spring far earlier than normal, we still need to green up quite a bit more before windy days pose little threat. The map below shows how early our plants are leafing out compared to normal from the National Phenology Network.

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As we head deeper into March, I still don’t see any signs of major cold air or wintry weather. Our window for this potential usually closes in about a month so this early “spring up” may just continue to usher in the upcoming season. For those of us wanting more snow, it doesn’t look too promising now with no major pattern shifts showing up, which is a bit unusual. For those of us even just wanting a decent rain to curb the drought and fire threat, the next two weeks don’t offer much hope either as the outlooks for temperature and moisture into mid-March shows.

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Stay alert the next few days during our unsettled weather pattern! Let’s hope for the moisture and not an early season severe weather outbreak. Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page for more weather updates!