Severe Storms & Fire Danger – A Dangerous Duo Today

As if our seemingly endless threat of wildfires isn’t enough, severe thunderstorms are also now in the mix.

A powerful system, generating wind gusts to over 50 mph in our viewing area, will likely set off a round or two of storms, bringing the threat for even higher wind gusts, large hail and even a few tornadoes. Most of this blog post pertains to Monday evening so skip down a few paragraphs if you’re reading beyond that time.

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                There are two potential scenarios for severe weather today, the first of which is more uncertain.  The general risk zone is shown above. Growing instability into our late afternoon and early evening matched with the arrival of upper-level energy may be enough to break the CAP (warm air aloft suppressing storm development), allowing for a few discrete supercell thunderstorms to form either on a dryline to our west or in the “warm sector” ahead of the advancing cold front in our area. Should this occur, storms could quickly become severe, rotate, and pose a risk for a few tornadoes. The latest short-term computer model guidance is not showing much for the late afternoon, so this threat is what we call conditional – IF it forms, watch out. I’m eying northeast Oklahoma into southern Kansas for this threat, but it could be anywhere in the area.

                The second and more likely round of severe storms will be those that form along the cold front as it dives southeast across the area. That line will likely back-build from western Missouri into northeast Oklahoma after 8 p.m., and likely impact the Tulsa area sometime around 10 p.m., give or take an hour. The image below shows the HRRR model storm depiction at 10 p.m. with the heavy storms lined up right along I-44. This round will pose a minimal tornado risk. High winds and hail will be the bigger threats in addition to the frequent lightning and torrential downpours. This round will sweep into southeastern Oklahoma after midnight.

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                While the severe weather gets the big attention today, fire danger is high given the strength of today’s winds. Despite higher humidity, these winds could rapidly spread fires. We’ve already seen this play out a few times today. The threat will be elevated into Tuesday behind this system as much drier air arrives. The winds will be far lighter on Tuesday, but whatever rain we see today will not do much to limit a fire in the day ahead.  Fire danger grows even further on Wednesday as gustier south winds return. What doesn’t return initially is moisture so we’ll end up with another dry, warm and breezy afternoon.

                A series of fast-moving storm systems arrive starting Thursday. Fire danger will be with us, but with better moisture in the area and the potential for a little rain, the threat drops off a bit. Heading into the first weekend of Spring Break, this unsettled pattern continues. Thanks to continued zonal flow in the jet stream, Arctic air remains locked up well to the north in Canada so any cool-downs we see behind cold fronts into early next week will be brief and not too substantial. This should set us up for some great weather to enjoy with the family if you’re planning outdoor activities over Spring Break. There have been some indications that spring weather DOES take a break next week, but nothing has fully locked onto that idea yet. I’m expecting a few days of more seasonable temperatures. Even a light freeze is possible. However, we should end up without too many surprises. The Outlook for temperatures below shows a warmer than normal pattern to be generally in place.

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                In the short-term, stay weather aware and have a way to receive weather alerts. Any storms that fire will be moving quickly. For more weather updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook Page.