TULSA, Oklahoma - We are tracking another storm system that will move across part of northern Oklahoma later today bringing a chance for scattered thunderstorms across the area.   Some of the storms this afternoon could become severe with all modes of severe weather possible.   We’re tracking a few showers and storms this morning, left-overs from last night’s activity, and will move eastward near the metro before weakening during the next few hours.   Our main storm activity will occur this afternoon and evening. 

The upper level flow will bring a strong upper level low across the state late this afternoon into this evening.   A surface area of low pressure will develop near the high plains of Texas and move across part of central or northern Oklahoma late this afternoon through the evening hours.   While low-level moisture is present across eastern Oklahoma, the quality and depth of that moisture may hold the key to our severe weather threats later this afternoon and tonight.   Our current probabilities will remain near a 50 to 60% chance for thunderstorms later this afternoon and tonight.   While a few showers and storms are possible early this morning to our northwest, our main time line will be from 4 p.m. this afternoon through the 10 p.m. hour tonight.   A couple of storms will attempt to develop ahead of the main system and could be large super cells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.   

A tornado threat may occur if storms can root along a warm frontal boundary located across northern Oklahoma by this afternoon.   A line of thunderstorm activity will more than likely develop as the surface boundary enters eastern Oklahoma late this evening and quickly sweep eastward across the area.    Early Wednesday morning a few spotty showers or a small area of rain will be possible across southern Kansas and extreme northern Oklahoma for a few hours.

Strong northwest winds from 20 to 30 miles per hour are likely early Wednesday morning along with mostly cloudy conditions for most of the day.   This means our temperatures would stay into the mid or upper 50's for many locations across far northern Oklahoma while moving into the lower sixties across the southern third of the area.  The weather pattern for Thursday through Saturday appears pleasant with a surface ridge of high pressure in control Thursday and Friday before our next upper-level system will be approaching the area by late this weekend into early next week.   The result will be a return to south winds Saturday and Sunday and increasing storm chances either Monday or Tuesday. The pattern would support the threat of strong to severe storms from Sunday into early next week.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone