TULSA, Oklahoma - We’re on track for the next few days.  This means a chance for a few showers or storms Thursday to our west, Friday morning near or northwest of the metro, and then into the 2nd half of the weekend into early next week.   Temps will move into the upper 70's to lower 80's today along with increasing clouds and southeast winds around 10 to 18 mph.   The temps will remain mild to warm for the next few days with highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's.   No air mass change will occur for the next 7 days.

Our next upper level system is moving across the desert southwest this morning and will bring much needed rain into the high plains of Texas later today.   Tonight a few storms will slide across far northwestern Oklahoma but will remain well west of the northeastern OK region.   Thursday the main system will slowly eject across the western half of the state with increasing probabilities for those areas.   Unfortunately, this system is projected to lift northeast into central Kansas late Thursday night or Friday morning.   While there should be some scattered showers or storms near the area Thursday, the much higher chances will remain to our west.   I lowered the pop yesterday a notch and should do so again today.   Friday morning a few showers or storms will be near us for the early morning hours but most of Friday will be precipitation free for most of the area.   The metro will have a near 20 to 30% chance of showers or storms as the system ejects early Friday morning while locations to the northwest of the I-44 area will have much higher chances.

Saturday we’ll see partly cloudy, windy, and warm conditions with highs in the lower 80's.

Late Saturday night into Sunday a weak front will slide across southern Kansas and may briefly enter far northern Oklahoma before stalling.   The upper level flow will be relatively weak but a disturbance nearby should help to develop a few storms late Saturday night into Sunday morning that may move southeast with time into the area.   We’ll continue our probability of storms for Easter Sunday morning through midday with highs in the mid to upper 70's. 

Monday into early next week the pattern becomes messy but the overall forecast scenario will keep a chance of thunderstorms across the northern half of the state along with lows near 60 and highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's.   The severe weather threats are usually never zero this time of the year, but the upper air low will be relatively weak compared to normal climatology.  This means we can’t rule out a stray strong to severe storms with any of these systems but the overall severe threats will be minimal other than some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall on occasion.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone