TULSA, Oklahoma - Most of the weekend was spectacular but changes will arrive later today and tonight with another fast-moving system that will bring a few showers and storms into northern and eastern OK. The threat for severe storms appears to be rather low with the best overlay of instability, lift and moisture well south and west of our immediate area.  

As a surface front clears the area later tonight into Tuesday morning we should experience a day or two of cooler air before a fast warm-up occurs late this week into the Memorial Holiday Weekend. Of course, it just wouldn’t be a Memorial Day Weekend without a mention of storms and we’ll probably see a few Friday night into Saturday as a front nears the state.  

Highs this afternoon will be in the mid-70s with increasing clouds along with southeast winds around 10 to 15 mph.There will be a chance for showers and storms by the afternoon into the evening hours.

The upper air flow is dominated by a major upper trough positioned across the Midwest with a stout northwest flow developing from the inter mountain region to the southern plains. A fast-moving disturbance rounding the western edge of this trough will slide across the plains tonight with storms developing from Colorado, Kansas and part of Oklahoma while the surface front moves southeast.  

The window for a few storms will start later this afternoon and continue for at least the first part of Tuesday across northern OK while shifting Tuesday afternoon and evening across southern sections of the state. We’ll probably be precip-free Wednesday across our region with a few showers possible across far northwestern Arkansas but this chance also remains very low. Temps both Tuesday and Wednesday will be cool with morning lows in the 40s and 50s along with daytime highs about upper 60s north to lower 70s south. My kind of weather!

The upper flow will transition from the northwest to west to southwest flow by later in the week but the main trough developing will be well north of the Rockies, and probably across the northern inter mountain region, maybe even into southern Alberta.  (A signal that our pattern is slowly but surely starting to signal the beginning of the end of our spring storm season.)  

As the upper flow begins to evacuate mass the surface reflection will support a low-pressure area developing in southeastern Colorado around Thursday into Friday with south winds returning along with increasing humidity across the state through the weekend.   Temps will move back into the mid-80s along with a few storms possible Friday night into Saturday morning to midday.  

The data has not been overly consistent regarding the frontal passage for this weekend with yesterday’s data lingering storm chances into Sunday and Monday.   But this morning a more progressive solution has arrived in both the EURO and GFS.   This would be some good news for the 2nd half of the Holiday weekend.   We’re a few days out and will have plenty of time to adjust but as this point the higher pops will be centered for Saturday and I ‘ll keep Sun a low pop. At least for now.   

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.,

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone