TULSA, Oklahoma - Pockets of light showers and drizzle will populate the region this morning along with southeast winds near 10 to 15 mph.  Temps in the 50s now will top out in the lower 60s this afternoon before another front moves across the area Wednesday morning with a chance for a few showers and rumbles of thunder.   The Wednesday front will stall south of the metro and move northward Thursday morning with another window for some drizzle or a few showers.   A strong upper level system will be nearing the central plains Friday into the weekend with windy and warm conditions Friday transitioning into cool yet pleasant weather for the weekend.   There will remain some differences in the data regarding thunderstorm potential for this system late Friday night into Saturday morning across extreme eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Pockets of drizzle-mist and some shower activity will continue to spread east and northeast this morning with many locations reporting this activity.  But the odds of any significant measurable precip will remain low with highest amounts from .05 to .10 for many areas today.   I may bring the actual chance up slightly to account for the coverage but the amounts will continue to be rather low.  This first wave will move away from the area later this afternoon with precip ending around midday from the southwest to northeast. 

The next front will approach pre-dawn Wednesday.   Enough instability will be present for a few isolated storms or some thunder from southwestern Missouri into NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas during the early morning hours.   Severe weather is not expected.  This system may be able to produce slightly higher amounts across far NE Oklahoma and SW Missouri.  There may be enough clearing (and time) for a few sun-breaks Wednesday afternoon across northern OK before the clouds arrive again late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the signal for a few showers or pockets of drizzle Thursday morning.   Alter the early morning hours, Thursday afternoon appears pleasant with highs in the mid-60s.  

The Friday system is very dynamic but data suggest that low level moisture will be swept eastward during the day with strong south to southwest winds from 20 to 35 mph.   We do have some timing differences in some of the data but enough support exist for mentions of an elevated fire danger Friday afternoon and evening to the west of the metro as the strong winds and incoming dry air combine to increase the potential for fire spread across the area.  GFS data, however, keep enough moisture in place for storms to develop Friday night late and spread rapidly out of the state into western Arkansas around midnight to 1 am.  The EURO, usually a superior model, does not develop any convection due to the lack of convergence along the boundary.   At this point, I’m inclined to offer a compromise with a leaning toward to the EURO.  

This timing difference may impact our Saturday morning low forecast, so temps may still change some for these periods the next few days before the data locks.  But most of the weekend looks pleasant with Saturday morning lows in the lower 40s and Sunday morning lows in the mid to upper 30s.   Highs both days will be in the lower 60s.   The pressure gradient may still be quite strong Saturday morning depending upon the exact timing of the front.   Breezy to windy conditions may continue to be present Saturday morning for the first half of the day before the winds begin decreasing in speeds later in the day.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.