TULSA, Oklahoma - Clouds and fog will be possible this morning through midday with temps remaining in the 40s.   Highs this afternoon will move into the upper 50s north and lower 60s south along with some sunshine by the afternoon and south winds. The pattern change will occur this week with the coldest air of the season spreading southward Friday and becoming bitterly cold Christmas Day into early next week.   There remains a small signal for some wintry precip late Saturday night into Sunday near the state but the odds of significant winter precipitation remain low.  But if you’re in the camp for some wintry weather, don’t give up hope yet.   We’re still several days out and confidence in the precip part of the forecast will remain low for another few days and will more than likely go through some changes.

The pattern will soon feature a developing and elongated ridge of high pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere building northward across the western Pacific and positioned near western Alaska.  Meanwhile a major and deepening trough will be located across Hudson Bay Canada.   The resulting upper air flow will be quite favorable for southward movement of Canadian air later this week with a surge of arctic air to follow by the weekend into early next week.   In the short term, a weakening upper level low near the Baja will eject across the southern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing another chance for a few showers or even some thunder across north Texas and southern Oklahoma by early Wednesday morning.   We’ll keep a chance for some precipitation in the forecast due to this system.  Temps will rebound nicely Wednesday with highs in the mid-60s along with south winds and some sunshine and these conditions will more than likely persist into Thursday. 

Thursday night late into early Friday morning the initial front of colder air will arrive across northeastern and eastern Oklahoma with temps dropping from the 60s overnight into the upper 30s or lower 40s by the morning and basically staying in these ranges for the day along with strong north winds and cloudy conditions.   This first front should basically stall across far southeastern Oklahoma late Friday night into Saturday morning.    Saturdays weather will be cold with morning lows starting in the mid-20s but highs hitting the upper 30s to lower 40s with partly cloudy sky and north winds.  

A second surge of colder air will arrive Sunday morning, Christmas Eve with morning lows in the mid to upper 20s and highs only in the mid to upper 30s.   It’s during this period that a chance for some light wintry precip will occur as a broad trough rotates around the main low pressure over Hudson Bay and slides across the central plains.   As this trough passes through southern Kansas snow will become likely with this feature but current EURO data support most of this system remaining to our north.   Again, we’re still very early in terms of days from next weekend and things may still change.   For example, the very last run of the GFS brings this feature southward by Saturday night into northern Oklahoma with some snowfall.   The prior run was more inline with the EURO reaming north.  Again, we still have some details to work out with this portion of the forecast.

As the trough exits the area much colder air will be able to spread southward Christmas Day and should stick around through Wednesday.   This extremely cold and dry air mass would keep us in the deep freeze for a few days next week before our next system arrives by the end of next week.

Now back to today!  Clouds and fog will be possible this morning through midday with temps remaining in the 40s.   Highs this afternoon will move into the upper 50s along with sunshine by the afternoon and south winds.  Tuesday morning lows will be in the 40s with highs also in the lower 60s with increasing clouds by midday.   Some showers will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mostly across southern Oklahoma and north Texas but we’ll have a chance for our forecast.   Wednesday morning lows will be in the mid-40s with highs in the lower to mid-60s.   Thursday morning lows will be in the mid to upper 40s with highs nearing the upper 60s or lower 70s with sunshine and breezy south winds.  Friday morning temps will be in the upper 30s or lower 40s and staying in this range by afternoon with north winds and increasing clouds.  Saturday morning lows will be in the mid-20s with highs near 43.   Sunday, Christmas Eve there will be a 10% chance of snow showers with lows in the lower 20s and highs in the upper 30s.   Christmas Day, Monday lows will be in the upper teens to lower 20s with highs in the upper 20s or lower 30s.  

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.