TULSA, Oklahoma - The system that brought drizzle and light rain to eastern Oklahoma is exiting to the east this morning and we’ll soon be in the running for another nice stretch of weather for a few days before our next front arrives Thursday with more cold air and a slight chance of precipitation.   Highs this afternoon should rebound to above normal temps with readings moving into the upper 40s to lower 50s along with northwest winds around 10 to 20 mph.  

Above normal readings are likely Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the lower 30s and highs in the lower to mid-50s Tuesday and possibly into the lower 60s Wednesday.   Gusty south winds are likely Wednesday from 15 to 30 mph before the next front moves across the area Thursday morning with falling temps from the 50s into the lower 30s by late afternoon along with gusty northwest winds behind the front.  More shallow arctic air will arrive Thursday and should stick around through the weekend with lows in the upper teens and lower 20s and highs Friday in the mid-30s and Saturday in the upper 20s and lower 30s. 

The split flow upper air pattern will bring another mid-level low from the Pacific westward across the southwestern U.S. and into Oklahoma Wednesday night into Thursday.  The exact positioning of this feature in the data has flipped around quite a bit in the last few days with some runs more northward and opening and other runs more closed and across the state.   This system has the potential to be a weather maker for the central and southern plains depending upon the exact trajectory of the low Wednesday night and Thursday.   Low level moisture is expected to be rather sparse ahead of the system.   This will limit the potential for pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across eastern OK.  If this system were to be delayed another 24 to 36 hours, it would be a severe weather maker across the southern plains.   The air aloft is very cold and combined with the post frontal air mass would support the potential for a swath of snowfall as the low lifts out across the plains.   This is a classic winter storm pattern, yet the moisture is again the big question.   At this point, any significant winter weather (snowfall) would occur across central Kansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with some flurries or light snow showers possible across eastern OK by midday to afternoon.  If the low changes trajectory in the data, this may change out forecast, but at this point, our precip chances Thursday will remain low. 

In summary, we’re back to pleasant weather today through Wednesday before the cold air returns Thursday through the weekend.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.