TULSA, Oklahoma - A very active weather pattern will unfold for the next week or so across the southern plains, including Oklahoma, and the eastern third of the state.  Showers along with a few rumbles of thunder will greet you early this morning across the northeastern third of the state and may continue occasionally through the day.  Gusty winds from the south at 25 to 38 mph will be likely with a few higher gusts just west of the area.  A wind advisory may be required for a few spots as the day progresses.  Afternoon highs should stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s today with the clouds remaining across the area.  A strong cold front will move across the area either later tonight or pre-dawn Tuesday with a line of rain and thunderstorms followed by much colder air.  There will be a small threat for some wintry precip Wednesday as moisture attempts to move up and over a shallow cold air mass that will more than likely be near freezing.  At this point, the chance for the icing remains lower than the other chances for precipitation both today and pre-dawn Tuesday, but is possible.  A few strong storms may be possible Tuesday morning but the odds for any severe weather across the eastern third of the state remains very low.

The upper air pattern from the southwest will drive several waves into the plains for the next 7 to 10 days.  This is a good pattern for drought-stricken areas of the state with the potential for beneficial rainfall which features a broad trough in the western third of the nation with the ridge in the east.  While this brings several systems near the state, we’re still in the running for occasional bouts of cold air, including Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday before moderating quickly into the end of the week.

Water values and low-level moisture content has jumped significantly over the past two days across the eastern third of the state.   Hard to imagine, but we may be in the running for some heavy rainfall that could cause some flooding-drainage issues across the far southeastern and eastern third of the area. 

A dry line will set-up across the far western Oklahoma region today and progress to near OKC to southwest Oklahoma line by early afternoon while the cold front will sweep down from Kansas into far northwestern Oklahoma later tonight.  Seems like the more likely threat for surface based severe weather would be in the proximity of the dry line, but we’ll watch the storms as the develop later tonight and surge eastward for any uptick in severe possibilities for our part of the state. 

The data suggest the front will surge into northeast Oklahoma Tuesday morning with a line of heavy storms quickly followed by temps dropping from the 60s into the upper 30s by later in the afternoon along with gusty north winds.  Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning temps will drop into the upper 20s with a signal for some light overrunning precip form the south to north across and atop the shallow dome of cold air.  This would give us a chance for some light freezing rain or possibly some sleet in spots.  The 12K NAM, usually good with shallow air masses, is the most aggressive with this scenario and may result in some travel issues Wednesday morning to midday. 

The rest of the week features a few more waves nearing the state with increasing rain and storm chances Thursday night into Friday with a system exiting the area Friday night into Saturday.  At this point, Sunday appears pleasant and dry.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.