TULSA, Oklahoma - Our next upper level system is over the L.A. Basin this morning and will turn to the east later today while weakening slightly as it moves across the southern plains Wednesday.  In response, a surface low pressure region will develop today to the northwest of the area and eventually move eastward across the state Wednesday with a chance for showers and storms more numerous today and slightly less so tomorrow.  A cold front will cross the state sometime late Wednesday evening bringing cooler and stable air to eastern Oklahoma Thursday through Saturday before our next system arrives Sunday into Monday with another chance for a few showers.  The current trajectory of both observation and model data support the true warm sector remaining to our southeast for this first system.  This means the threat for significant severe weather is very low for the state and should remain to the southeast of most of our area of concern.   Temps will start this morning in the 40s but clouds will arrive by midday to afternoon along with scattered showers and some thunder.  Despite the possibility of some rain-cooled locations, we think most folks will top out in the upper 50s to near 60. 

Looking across Texas this morning, low and mid-level clouds are developing rapidly and will move into our area by midday with the possibility of scattered precip not too far behind.  The main timing appears to support the window from approximately noon to 7 pm or so.  Later tonight into Wednesday morning we should get a respite with morning lows in the 50s and highs nearing 70 by the afternoon.  A surface low will be nearing northern Oklahoma late Wednesday afternoon with a dry line extending southward into the state.  Ahead of this feature some thunderstorm activity will be possible with the southeastern and east central sections having the better chance for thunderstorm activity.  The metro may not be in the best position for storms but we have kept the chance at 50-50 for the Wednesday afternoon and early evening period.  As we think the true warm sector will remain southeast of our area, any surface based severe weather threats would be across northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas and possibly the Choctaw-McCurtain County locations.  A few elevated storms may occur across east-central Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon with some small hail and gusty winds.  The surface front will cross the area around 1am Thursday with strong northwest winds nearing 30 mph through the early hours before gradually decreasing by midday to afternoon.  Temps Thursday morning will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s with daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s along with mostly sunny conditions. 

Friday into Saturday appear pleasant and uneventful as south winds return, and gradually warmer weather returns to the state. 

Sunday into Monday another upper level trough will impact the nation but this one may take more of a northern route before the base swings into the state early next week.   This means we’re in store for a chance of additional showers Sunday as warm air advects across the area before another modest cool-down occurs with the frontal passage Monday.  I do not see any significant intrusion of cold air and wintry weather with this system. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.