TULSA, Oklahoma - Chilly conditions are underway this morning with many locations in the 30s to lower 40s with partly cloudy conditions across northeastern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas.  Cool north winds are underway around 10 mph.  Highs today will move back into the mid-50s with the broken clouds eventually thinning out with some chilly yet sunny weather through the afternoon.   A pattern change will occur soon and bring much warmer weather back into the plains by the end of the week.   A strong looking system may eventually impact part of the southern plains for part of the weekend into early next week.  

The upper air flow will transition from the northwest to southwest this week and will bring a strong looking trough into the plains this weekend into early next week.   The pattern would suggest the potential for a few storms Friday into the weekend before the surface front moves across the area Sunday into Monday.   But the “pattern” also suggest that a veering profile may limit and push deeper moisture into far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the early period before quickly returning Sunday ahead of the main system.  We’ll keep a very slight chance of a few showers or storms in the extended forecast for Friday and Saturday, but the chances will remain low for this forecast cycle.  A slightly better chance will arrive either Sunday or Monday.  This pattern would support severe weather chances.  More on this portion of the forecast during the up and coming week.

In the short term we’re looking at rather uneventful weather this week with cool temps and north winds Monday and Tuesday before a major warm-up occurring Friday into the weekend.  Some locations will hit the upper 70s and lower 80s Friday and Saturday before a front nears the area Sunday into Monday.   The fire danger issues will remain somewhat muted for the next few days but may increase markedly by the middle to end of the week as warmer and windy weather arrives across the plains, including Oklahoma.  

Before this occurs, cool weather will persist for the next 48 hours with cold mornings and chilly afternoons.   Some clouds have managed to sneak down from the Missouri Valley into eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.  The short term hi-res data suggest these broken clouds may stick around through noon before thinning out into the early afternoon. This would have an impact on the potential for daytime highs.  I’ll probably knock the high down a few degrees from previous to account for this possibility. 

The coldest stretch during the next 3 days should occur Wednesday morning as a surface ridge of high pressure settles very close to northeastern OK with morning lows in the mid-20s.   The ridge will move east and the warm-up begins by the afternoon and will continue into the weekend before the trough finally ejects across the plains early next week.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.