TULSA, Oklahoma - A strong southwest flow will bring pockets of rain and thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma for the next 48 to 60 hours, including the threats of heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding issues for some locations, and the possibility of severe storms near or slightly west of the metro region. 

A flood watch is in effect for Monday evening through Tuesday evening in several eastern Oklahoma counties. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 5 to 6 inches are expected, according to the National Weather Service.

Counties included are: Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, Mayes, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Ottawa, Pittsburg, Rogers, Sequoyah, Tulsa and Wagoner.

Later this afternoon and tonight a surface dry line will be established across far western and central Oklahoma with the main upper level trough drawing closer to the region. Scattered strong to near severe storms will be possible along and ahead of the dry line by the afternoon and evening before possibly congealing as a complex of storms moving across the area.  

The strong upper level low will be roughly parallel to a surface cold front that will be near the I-44 corridor late tonight into Tuesday morning.  This will create a training scenario near this region and may result in periods of heavy rainfall.  A flash flood watch has been posted for most of this region through Tuesday morning.  Additionally, the deep layer shear may initially help to create severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds but the more favored locations will remain slightly to our west.  

Super cellular storms may could produce a tornado warning or two but the tornado threat will remain lower than the hail and wind threats.  The more favorable location for any of these storms should be confined to the southwestern to central Oklahoma region.  The main weather hazard for eastern Oklahoma will remain heavy rainfall and flooding.

A surface cold front will slowly move across the area Tuesday morning to midday and slowly shift the precipitation away from northeastern Oklahoma while focusing the rainfall across the far southeastern quadrant of the state.  

Another weak upper level impulse will arrive Wednesday with yet another surface front from the north to create a few additional showers or storms before a possible fast-moving wave brushes the state Thursday night into Friday morning.   And to round off the active pattern, another front should arrive Sunday morning to midday with a few showers and storms followed by another cool down.

A warm front is lifting northward this morning with numerous showers and storms developing across part of southeast Kansas.  Most of these storms will be elevated in nature and capable of producing some nickel hail and heavy rainfall for some locations.  We’re currently quiet and void of precip for most of eastern Oklahoma as I’m posting early this morning.  Showers and storms will develop about mid morning and spread northeast during the midday to afternoon. Lightning and small hail will be possible in the stronger cells.   

Later this afternoon and tonight a surface dry line will be established across far western and central Oklahoma with the main upper level trough drawing closer to the region.  Scattered strong to near severe storms will be possible along and ahead of the dry line by the afternoon and evening before possibly congealing as a complex of storms moving across the area.   The strong upper level low will be roughly parallel to a surface cold front that will be near the I-44 corridor late tonight into Tuesday morning.  This will create a training scenario near this region and may result in periods of heavy rainfall.  A flash flood watch has been posted for most of this region through Tuesday morning.  Additionally, the deep layer shear may initially help to create severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds but the more favored locations will remain slightly to our west.   Super cellular storms may could produce a tornado warning or two but the tornado threat will remain lower than the hail and wind threats.  The more favorable location for any of these storms should be confined to the southwestern to central Oklahoma region.   The main weather hazard for eastern Oklahoma will remain heavy rainfall and flooding.

Active weather is possible again Wednesday morning with a weak back side system and then again late Thursday night into Friday morning.   The Sunday front will bring a chance for a few showers or storms, but the bigger story may end up being colder weather to follow.   Our current forecast is a big compromise between the two main sets of data for this period.  One is much colder.   Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.