Tracking Thunderstorm Chances For Northeast Oklahoma
TULSA, Oklahoma - Storms that formed yesterday and last night across western Kansas and Colorado will continue to drop east and southeast this morning and may survive into northeastern or central Oklahoma during the early morning hours. Complicating the forecast even more today will be the possible influence of outflows from this activity that may develop more storms this morning through midday across part of the area. Lastly, additional storms are likely to develop later this afternoon across part of northwestern or central Oklahoma and move southeast later tonight. Any of these storms could have the potential to produce severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts and some hail along with locally heavy rainfall. The coverage may not be widespread. In other words, not all locations will have the chance for storms today and tonight. The exact trajectory and timing of this activity is most definitely subject to fast change today but we’ve continued to keep a decent chance for part of our area. Early Saturday morning some of the data supports another small MCS that could clip far northeast Oklahoma, yet the data is highly inconclusive. I’ll only carry a low chance for Saturday morning for this update. Highs today, outside of any rain-cooled boundary locations, would be in the upper 80s near 90. Even warmer air would be likely tomorrow with highs in the 90 to 94 range. Our reasoning for the rest of the forecast hasn’t changed much from yesterday’s post.
Later tonight into Saturday a mid-level ridge of high pressure will develop across the Mexican Plateau and nudge into north central Texas into part of Oklahoma which will tend to limit the progression of any major storm systems away from our area. At this point, the extended Holiday period looks mostly warm and muggy with THI values in the mid to upper 90s as this ridge begins to influence most of our area. A few isolated pop-up storms will be mentioned for Sunday and Monday across extreme eastern OK but the odds would remain less than 10%. Some data (GFS) suggest the tail end of another MCS may clip far northeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning as the top side of the ridge flattens while other data ( EURO) supports a slightly stronger ridge, and consequently warmer temps later in the week. We’ll keep a slight placeholder pop (10%) for Wednesday for planning purposes.
If you’ve been reading our discussions this week, you’re aware of the possible tropical Gulf system attempting to develop. It appears that any development will remain well to the east of our area of influence for early next week. Locations anywhere from Louisiana to Florida could be impacted by this system.
Our main item of interest will be the muggy and warm weather with highs in the 90s and THI values nearing 100 for most of the extended Memorial Day Holiday.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog. I would encourage you to remain aware of your weather surroundings today.