Florence continues to be a major threat to the Carolina coastal regions and continues slowly move northwest as a category 4 hurricane this morning.

Our weather across northeastern OK continues to look very pleasant for the next few days despite a noticeable increase in low-level moisture resulting in a few spotty showers across east central to southeastern OK for the next few days. Our temps will slowly rise, both morning lows and afternoon highs, with most locations eventually closer to the upper 80s and lower 90s this weekend before a front nears from the northwest sometime early next week.

A possible tropical system may also be nearing the south Texas coastal region Thursday into early this weekend that may have some minor impacts our sensible weather with a slight increase in moisture and shower chances for the weekend, yet the confidence continues to remain low.

The general trends with Hurricane Florence remain the same from yesterday morning’s post. This powerful and large hurricane will pose a multi-hazard threat to the Carolinas and surrounding regions with a high storm surge, significant inland freshwater flooding, a few tornadoes and damaging hurricane force winds.

The model consensus hasn’t changed much in the past few days regarding intensity or general locations of impact. There will be some minor fluctuations but the overall messaging with this system will not change.

A mid-level ridge to the north will steer the storm northwest into the coastal region Thursday evening into Friday before making landfall as a powerful hurricane. The forecast calls for a landfall as a Cat 4, but I wouldn’t be too focused on the actual number. For example, sea surface temps today and tomorrow ahead of the system support a possibility of a Cat 5, but the difference between a strong Cat 4 or a Cat 5 is inconsequential and only technical in nature, the main impacts from this storm will more than likely be the same. The slow movement will keep the destructive hurricane force wind potential confined to a relatively smaller area when compared to the main threat axis of storm surge and freshwater flooding. Unfortunately, the slow movement will greatly enhance the precip. totals, which may be historic for some locations.

We’re at the normal peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, so it’s not totally unusual to see three named storms during this time of year. The other two remain in the basin this morning but will not have major impacts on the U.S at this time. The development in the northwest Caribbean could sneak its way into a named tropical storm by later this week yet the confidence for this system will remain low.

Cool weather is again underway across northern OK this morning with upper 50s and lower to mid-60s across our region along with mostly clear sky. We’ll have a few more clouds occasionally today with south winds and highs moving into the lower 80s. A few spotty showers will be possible each afternoon, mostly across far southeastern or east central OK the next few days, with increasing moisture and highs moving back into the mid to upper 80s.

We’ll keep a slight chance nearing the metro for this weekend. A front will be nearing the state around Monday to Wednesday of next week bringing a few showers or storms followed by highs in the mid-70s for a day or two following the frontal passage.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV