TULSA, Oklahoma - Temps are down into the 40s this morning along with clear sky and a north breeze.  Welcome back to some real fall weather!  Highs this afternoon should top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s along with mostly sunny sky through midday until clouds increase with the next upper level wave moving across Kansas.  This feature will bring a chance of some light showers across part of Oklahoma late tonight into Friday with highs Friday afternoon near the upper 50s.  Friday could end up being a rather chilly day with any rain cooled air resulting in temps in the lower 50s.  We’ll shoot for the mid to upper 50s at this point, but you’ll need the jacket and some rain gear for some locations Friday. 

The weekend continues to look wet as the remnant from Tropical Storm Sergio merges with a developing wave and moves across the southern plains bringing rain back into the state.  The GFS and EURO continue to differ on the exact timing and location of some important features, but we feel our forecast will suffice either way at this point.  Rain will be increasing by midday to late afternoon Saturday and continue through at least Saturday evening before ending Sunday morning.  The surface low is expected to remain south along the Red River Valley thus keeping northern Oklahoma on the cool side of the system.  Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible with amounts from 1 to 2 inches possible but this exact zone is still up for grabs. 

A cold front will sweep across the state Sunday morning bringing a very chilly air mass to eastern OK.  We may start in the mid or upper 50s but move down into the lower 50s or even some upper 40s by afternoon with north winds and mostly cloudy conditions.  At this point we do have some widely different options for Monday but the data is now converging with another decent chance for rain Monday. 

A deformation type zone appears to set-up on the departing Sunday system that would bring more precip up the back side of the system into central and northeastern Oklahoma Monday.  Additional colder air will spill down the Rockies into the plains with the potential for highs in the 40s across northeastern Oklahoma while some snow would be possible across the panhandle or extreme northwestern Oklahoma where the air would be colder.  We could be flirting with some mid to upper 30s for morning lows early next week. 

Most of next week looks rather chilly, but by the end of the week the pattern may once again bring some warming components back into the plains.  By next Thursday, we may be back to highs in the 70s.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.