Warmer Temperatures, Rain Chances Return To Green Country

After yesterday’s active weather, we get a one-day break before another fast-moving disturbance drops across the northwest upper flow bringing another chance for a few showers and storms across the region.  This activity will mostly be sub-severe near or west of the metro even though one or two storms may produce some small hail and gusty winds as a surface low tracks across the region and a cold front passes the area by Friday afternoon and evening.  Locations across highway 69 eastward may have a better chance for a few strong to severe storms Friday afternoon into the evening hours.  At this point, the weekend looks pleasant despite a weak upper wave nearing the state for Saturday night into Sunday.  I’ll continue to keep the weekend pop-free with morning lows in the upper 40s.  Saturday a surface ridge will be nearby with north winds and highs in the upper 60s near 70.  South winds return Sunday as the ridge moves east with highs reaching the lower to mid-70s.  Another system may near the state Tuesday into Wednesday, but chances will remain low for this forecast cycle.  

Temperatures are fine this morning with many locations reporting the lower to mid-50s.  The upper level system is still hugging Northwestern Arkansas early this morning and will provide a few sprinkles across northeastern OK pre-dawn.  These should quickly leave.  Some clouds will linger for the early morning period before some sunshine arrives at midday to afternoon.  Northwest winds return today along with mostly sunny weather and highs into the upper 70s.  Despite our storms yesterday, low level moisture has not changed much.  Some high-res data support dewpoints returning into the lower 60s this afternoon with a few showers or storms developing to our west later today.  One or two of these may move into northeastern OK later tonight but the coverage will be low, so the probabilities will remain low. 

Later tonight a fast-moving wave will approach the central plains from the northwest allowing another low-pressure center to develop across the panhandle region or northwestern OK.  The data this morning is different compared to yesterday regarding the track of the surface low, but it hasn’t changed our forecast much.  It should bring the low across the state from the northwest to southeast but may stay slightly more north compared to yesterday.  The bottom line:  storm chances will remain later tonight into Friday.  Severe threats will also continue, but mostly across southeastern to far east-central OK.  The main threats will be hail and wind. 

Early next week, another upper level system will drop across the central plains that will bring a cold front across the state Tuesday with a few storms. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone