The upper air flow will quickly bring another disturbance into the central plains Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with a chance for some additional showers or storms across the state as a cold front rapidly moves from the northwest to southeast. Low level moisture convergence along the front is expected to remain low but moisture behind the boundary may be sufficient for a decent chance of showers or storms with this system. Severe weather is not expected across northeast Oklahoma. The northwest flow will remain for a few days this week with another system nearing Thursday night into Friday before slowly transitioning back to a southwest flow pattern this weekend into next week. This pattern change will eventually bring more active weather back to the southern plains, including Oklahoma, during the first week of May.
Temps today should be pleasant with partly cloudy skies and highs touching the lower 70s for many spots. The winds will remain from the north around 10 to 15 mph keeping the area in a relatively pleasant pattern for the day. The first wave nearing Tuesday night with quickly shove the front southward with some rain and isolated thunder developing, mostly post frontal into pre-dawn Wednesday. The QPF data has trended slightly higher regarding precip amounts in the last few runs, more so across the southern sections. But we’ll keep the current pops intact for this forecast update. Another fast dropping short wave will move along the northwest flow Thursday night to our northwest but may be able to produce a few showers or storms with another system during this period. As it clears the region, we should be in for a decent Saturday and possibly Sunday before the energy in the southwest developing pattern nears the state.
The pattern will suggest that active weather will follow, including the threats for severe weather across the southern plains sometime next week with a loading western U.S. trough and trajectories from the Gulf pointing deeper moisture into our direction.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.