Oklahoma Pollster Says Polling This Cycle Is ‘Unstable’

An Oklahoma pollster tells us that polling has been incredibly unstable since the 2016 election. He thinks his new process more accurately represents what will happen on election day.

Thursday, November 3rd 2022, 5:27 pm


Early voting is underway in Oklahoma and Soonerpoll.com, a non-partisan polling website, is hoping to gather the state's largest early voting exit poll data sample in history. 

Collecting data before or after elections; however, may not be as easy as it once was. In fact, Bill Shapard, the head of Soonerpoll.com defines this midterm polling data as unstable. He says it may be a sign of the times. 

“That’s kind of the political environment that we live in right now,” he said. “If people stop talking to us and telling us their views and opinions it can adversely impact polling.” 

In this midterm, he’s found it’s often ‘likely Republican’ voters that stopped talking. 

“They don’t want to be cancelled, they don’t want to be shamed, they don’t want to lose their job or their income,” he said. 

The silent Republicans, as he calls them, don’t put a sign in the yard or sticker on the car, yet they plan to show up on election day. 

It’s a trend Shapard says first took hold in the 2016 election, and he believes his industry hasn’t kept up. 

“It’s because we’re seeing pollsters using old tech,” he explained. “They’re using things that are now outdated.” 

Shappard made an adjustment after 2016. Now Soonerpoll.com hopes to move to an internal proprietary panel. Then the data comes to Oklahomans who know them, trust them, and want to participate. 

Nationally, data suggest a “red wave” is coming next Tuesday. Shapard doesn’t believe Oklahoma will buck that trend. 

“We think there will be a red wave here in Oklahoma as well,” said Shapard. “Where we’re seeing the exception is in the governor’s race.” 

Shapard said that education may be the key factor, and it may show that voters are more willing to split the ticket. 


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