Cooler Tuesday, Wet Wednesday/Thursday.
Cool front sweeping across the state this afternoon fired up some pretty good storms in the extreme eastern counties and on into Arkansas. Behind this boundary, our skies have already cleared and those gusty NW winds will be subsiding as we go through the night tonight. That will lead to a clear, cold start to our day on Tuesday, but sunny skies and light northerly winds will make for a relatively nice day.
Wednesday is the main forecast headache this time around. The QPF map on the right is valid through this coming Thursday and is painting some badly needed moisture across the Sooner State. The problem will be at the beginning of the precipitation event Wednesday due to some cool, dry air that will be in place as the precipitation starts falling. The evaporation that takes place as the precipitation falls through the dry air is a cooling process and could bring temperatures down to near the freezing mark or at least the mid 30s for much of the day Wednesday. That leaves open the possibility of a wintry mix on Wednesday with a sleet/rain/snow mix possible.
As we get into the evening and overnight hours, strong southerly winds and the warm air advection associated with that should gradually bring temperatures up at the surface and aloft so just a cold rain that night. Even warmer conditions are expected on Thursday in advance of a cool front that will be sweeping across the state bringing the precipitation to an end. Again, referring to the QPF map, rainfall totals of up to an inch and locally more will be possible with this system.
The clearing skies Thursday afternoon/evening will set the stage for a clear, cold start to Friday morning. Lots of sunshine during the day and a northerly wind will keep temperatures somewhat below normal.
A fast moving piece of energy aloft will be moving across the state on Saturday providing partly cloudy skies, but it should be moisture starved. If any showers do occur, they would be short-lived and very light. Temperatures will moderate on through Sunday with gusty southerly winds for much of the day. Another cool front is expected by that night or perhaps early Monday which would provide our next chance of some showers.
As in most things, timing can be everything, and it appears that for the Bassmaster Classic the tournament days will be between the major weather makers. A very wet Wed/Thu, looking pretty good for Fri-Sun, then potentially wet again Sunday night or Monday. Of course that is certainly subject to change, but that is the way things are looking right now.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.