Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Rain, Cooler Temps Later This Week
TULSA, Oklahoma - A strong storm system will be nearing the state during the next 48 hours with increasing rain and storm chances. A few of the storms may become strong to severe across far western and southern OK. Cooler and drier air will move into the area behind the system with Friday and Saturday remaining below the seasonal average. Another upper level system approaches the state Sunday and Monday with a chance for a few showers across part of Eastern OK. Another cold front may clear the state by the middle of next week.
Local observations and model soundings support another stratus deck developing this morning across the eastern third of the state. Unlike the previous two mornings, the fog development is not expected this morning due to the increasing winds across the area. Temperatures will remain cool this morning with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Southerly winds will increase from 10 to 25 mph today as our pressure begins falling in response to the approaching upper level system. This major trough located across the desert southwest will continue to dig southward today before ejecting northeast Thursday and Friday. An initial disturbance will eject around the base later tonight and move into eastern OK tomorrow morning. Scattered showers and storms will begin and spread across portions of eastern OK. Additional showers and storms will attempt to develop later Thursday afternoon and evening as the cold front moves across the region. The wind profile with the system is conducive for some strong to severe storms. Model instability and potential convective energy may be low but deep layer shear could overcome the lack of moisture to create some severe storms. If low level moisture is higher than anticipated our severe weather threat may also increase.
The front associated with this system will sweep across the eastern third of the state late Thursday night bringing an end to the storms pre-dawn Friday morning. Unless the timing of this system changes, Friday will be very nice with cool and dry conditions, including Friday Night Football across the state.
A second front will move into the area Saturday morning as a long wave trough in the mid-levels of the atmosphere brushes the central and southern plains. This will bring a slightly cooler air mass into the state with morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Saturday afternoon highs are expected in the lower 60s. Rain and thunderstorms will be located across part of central and northern Texas Saturday.
The upper air flow will quickly bring another disturbance through the southwest flow Sunday into Monday. But the model data has changed compared to yesterday. We’ll push the slight chance of showers from Sunday into early next week. This system may not totally clear the state until Wednesday of next week. We’ll keep only low chances for showers and storms in the forecast for early next week, but higher chances will eventually be needed around Wednesday of Thursday of next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Rain, Cooler Temps Later This Week