TULSA, Oklahoma - Pretty quiet at this hour (3 am) with no precip on the radar.   A few showers or storms will be possible this morning across southern OK and possibly one or two along the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line area.   Otherwise a few isolated to pop-up storms will remain possible just about anywhere this afternoon as temperatures rise into the upper 90s.   Deeper moisture will be pooling across far southeastern OK into western Arkansas and a few more storms will be possible in this region.  

Temperatures will continue to climb back into the “hot” category with highs nearing 95 to 98 today and near 100 through Thursday.   Heat index values are also expected to climb with advisory levels being reached across most of eastern OK through Thursday.  Some counties may not be included for the next 2 afternoons but Thursday looks pretty sticky for all of eastern OK.   The upper level pattern is expected to change later this week allowing a seasonally strong storm system to move across the state Friday night into Saturday morning bringing a round of storms and some noticeably “not as hot” air across northeastern OK this weekend.

The mid-level ridge of high pressure will slowly expand and strengthen over the state for the next 36 to 48 hours.   This ridge will still allow for a few storms to develop but the coverage is expected to become lower into Wednesday and Thursday.   A strong mid-level trough will move across the central plains into the Midwest by Friday and Saturday.   A cold front will develop across the central plains and move southward sometime Friday into Saturday.  The exact timing of the front will be pinned down soon but at this point appears to be sometime Friday night.   This front will bring a round of storms to the state with some leftover showers and storms renaming pre-dawn Saturday across northeastern and eastern OK.    Northeast winds this weekend combined with the strong front should bring the highs down around 10 to 15 degrees in some if not all locations.   This means daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s are likely this weekend with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.   A noticeably drier air mass will reside across the northeastern quadrant of the state with locations across southeastern OK continuing to experience the tropical air-mass.   Some of the Friday night and Saturday pre-dawn storms will more than likely be strong to near severe with damaging wind potential and pockets of heavy rainfall a possibility.   South winds and a return into the 90s will occur by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, but most data support the not as hot air residing from the weekend into the early part of next week!

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone