Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council said he's not surprised Trump's threats have encouraged vendors to stock up on hard-to-source fruits and vegetables. "That's what happens when presidential statements lead people in commerce to think something bad is going to happen," he said.
Americans could also, at some point, begin to see the fruit disappear from grocery stores and restaurant menus. "If the price becomes too high, grocery stores and restaurants will say I guess we will do without them and you will have empty shelves for consumers," Jungmeyer said.
Americans last year imported nearly 2 billion pounds of avocados from Mexico alone, according to the Hass Avocado Board. "Mexico is the main source, and if Mexico were shut out, prices would go up and maybe you wouldn't be able to get guacamole," Jungmeyer said.
Avocado prices are volatile and can fluctuate based on weather alone. But this kind of volatility is rare, according to David Magana, a senior fruit and vegetable analyst for Rabobank. He says the sudden price surge --a 44% spike in wholesale prices based on U.S.D.A. data from Tuesday, March 26 to Tuesday, April 2 -- is directly related to Trump's ramped-up rhetoric during that period. "This is retailers getting as many avocados as possible just in case they close the border," he said.
Still, it could take days for elevated wholesale prices to be reflected at grocery stores. "I was in the supermarket last night and was seeing the same promotion from last week, but today I might see different prices," Magana said.
The United States also relies on California for avocados -- but the Golden State is expected to be in short supply this year. "California production started late and we are expecting a smaller crop this year, so the share of Mexican avocados in the U.S. is higher than normal right now," Magana said.
Roughly 95 percent of blackberries, 60 percent of tomatoes, and 75 percent of the asparagus consumed in the United States this time of year also come from Mexico. On Monday, tomato prices were up 30 percent from a week earlier, Magana said.
There's no telling how high prices will go -- especially if the president closes the border.
"We could easily see prices doubling or even tripling in a matter of weeks just because of weather disruptions in the growing region, but what we are exploring here is something we haven't yet seen happen, so it is difficult to estimate a price impact," he said.