After our roller coaster winter, could we see more tornadoes this spring?
Forecasting spring weather or any seasonal weather is difficult. Just because it is Oklahoma, we have a lot of up and downs, just like what we went through for our winter.
The weird thing is we look at the Pacific Ocean and temperatures way way off to the south and west of Oklahoma. But it drives our weather and it drives weather worldwide.
We watch the temperatures increasingly because of all the differences that happen. We have phases we call neural, we have El Nino and La Nina.
La Nina is what has been occurring as we have gone through the last 6-8 months. And it is also responsible for multiple tornado outbreaks 1984 was one of those, May 3rd was one which we will never forget.
Some of these were stronger La Ninas, but needless to say La Nina patterns seem to be the patterns that cause more problems, especially tornado outbreaks.
This year also with drier air we're thinking that the dry line might be further to the east.
The difference between the dry air and the moist air. That would set us up for a higher probability of tornadoes. If the occurs, then we start to have some big time issues.
So this spring, our severe weather threats are pretty much near normal, flooding a little less and even though I'm say tornadoes are less, yet there may be some bigger outbreaks it looks like some of those could be violent. And also the season could start earlier.
March is not that big of a deal until late in the month and especially in April. Usually May is a big month, but that's not normally the case.
So our forecast for the spring, warmer than normal temperatures, which might not be a good thing, especially in western Oklahoma.
And if you take a look at precipitation, same problem, drier from Tulsa to the west.