Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, February 19th 2014, 4:46 am
By: Alan Crone

We're tracking a storm system that may bring a few showers or storms to the region soon.  Another front will arrive Saturday afternoon bringing cooler air back to the region Sunday.  A stronger cold front may arrive early next week with colder air and a chance of some showers.  

A boundary moved across the state late last night and is located to our south this morning.  This boundary will lift northward as a warm front later today with a chance for a few scattered showers or storms across far northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas late this afternoon and evening.  As the moisture continues to move northeast overnight, additional showers or storms will be possible across the far northern third of Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and Southern Missouri.  A few of these storms could produce some hail late this afternoon into the evening hours.  

A strong surface low pressure area will rapidly move across extreme southern Kansas early Thursday morning with a cold front quickly surging southeast across the eastern third of the state.  The potential will remain for a narrow line of showers or storms along this boundary from 5am Thursday until approximately 10am. Most of the data does not include any precip during this time period, but we'll keep a chance in the forecast.   As the front moves quickly east, moisture will also be shunted away from the area with dry and windy conditions enveloping the area.  The morning clouds will clear by afternoon along with temperature dropping from near 60 Thursday morning into the lower 50s by afternoon.  Despite the small window for showers and storms, the fire danger will continue to be high behind the departing boundary due to the strong winds.  The winds may increase speeds from 20 to 40 mph across eastern OK with stronger winds across the western half of the state.  

As the system moves eastward, additional storms will be likely across the mid-south and mid-western portion of the nation where a severe weather threat will exist. 

The weather Friday will be very spring-like across Eastern OK.  Morning lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s will move into the mid-60s by afternoon with mostly sunny conditions until late in the day.  A cold front will near the area Saturday afternoon bringing highs back into the 50s Sunday.   The temps Saturday should top out in the lower 60s. 

The exact outcome of the weather next week still remains a low confidence forecast for specifics, but all data continue supporting colder air arriving either Monday or Tuesday.  This could drop the highs back into the 40s.  An upper level system may also be near the area with a chance of some precipitation but the chance will remain low.

The extended pattern supports the cold air remaining through most of next week.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 74 recorded at 4:46pm.

The normal daily average high is 54 and the low is 32.

Our daily records include a high of 77 from 2011 and a low of 9 from 1978. 

You'll find me on Facebook and twitter.

 I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone