A few scattered strong to near severe storms are possible this morning across southeastern and northeastern OK. Warm moist air is being lifted across the atmosphere from the southeast to the northeast around 5000 ft. This "warm air advection" will result in scattered hailers this morning. It's unclear exactly how wide spread this activity will become this morning, but it may be more of a function of looking at the radar and projecting forward movement for a few hours. Most of the hi res models paint most of the storms across east central OK, but we'll keep mentioning this probability area wide for the next few hours. At this point, we're pretty quiet.
The surface boundary as been lurking to our south for the better part of yesterday and this morning will begin moving northward. We call this a retreating warm front. This means the former cold front has stalled and is backing up to the north. Thus, the retreat. Despite this warm front moving into the area today, it really won't be that warm. Afternoon highs in the lower 60s or will be common along with east to southeast winds around 15 mph. Most of the storms should be " elevated" and rooted only into that advancing layer of warm air around 5000 ft.
The position of the warm front this afternoon is still a big question! This appears to stay south for the first part of the day. Strong to severe storms will be likely this afternoon across southern OK and north Texas and a few may develop across northern OK.
This boundary will slide back southward Friday evening with more storm potential before stalling from the southwest to northeast across the state this weekend. A stalled boundary is a good thing and a bad thing. The good: our friends in central and western OK may get some much needed rainfall. The bad: we may have some severe storms to deal with also.
Early next week a major upper level system is forecast to swing into the plains driving a powerful system into OK and then to points east. This system may have the makings of another major severe weather maker for a large portion of the nation. We continue to see diverging solutions regarding the placement of the upper level features. GFS is more north and faster, while the usually superior EURO is slower, stronger, and more to the south. It's useless to get into specific details and scenarios this many days out, but we'll try to pin point some additional details tomorrow as we move into the weekend.
I am really tired. I think the early morning shift combined with "life" is starting to take its toll. I've known this for a while, but haven't quite figured out the solution at this point. Maybe a strict diet and exercise regiment would help. I have tried in the past to be more dedicated to the diet and exercise part, but the need for sleep seems to always take me out of the race. "Well meaning" folks just tell me to go to sleep earlier. But this would be short changing my family time and would seem to add different problems and no real solution either. So...what to do. I'll figure it out. And I'll probably still be tired. Could it be I'm just getting older and things are starting to "slow down "? My precious son just noticed a few days ago that I had some gray hair. Bless his heart. I've had it since before he was born. I hope one day my kids don't remember me as the"sleeping, old, out of shape gray haired guy, who slept a lot on the couch during the afternoon". Mid life crisis? Probably not since I recognize it, but you never know.