Tuesday Morning Update

We're looking for mostly sunny and warm conditions today with highs in the lower 80s.  A strong cold front arrives Wednesday night with storm chances and colder air Thursday.  

Welcome back to summer!  Yesterday's high made it to the upper 80s in northern OK.  We experienced some lower 90s across the western part of the state.  We'll be under the warm air again today and for most of tomorrow before a significant cold front slides across the state late Wednesday afternoon bringing much colder air back to the region Thursday.  There will be a chance for some thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the data continues to support a strongly capped atmosphere ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening across eastern OK.  Our higher chances for showers and storms may occur late Wednesday night and Thursday morning behind the boundary through the midday hours.  If this scenario plays out, the severe weather threat will be greatly limited and would only be for a very short window of opportunity Wednesday evening.  I think the bigger deal will be the much colder air for Thursday into Friday morning.  The RAW Nam continues to support Thursday morning temps in the upper 40s with readings by the afternoon around 50 or so along with strong northwest winds.   Temperatures in the 40s for daytime readings in early May are extremely rare.  The coolest maximum high in Tulsa is 50 degrees.  The official high may be recorded directly after midnight Thursday morning and could be near or above this reading.   

The next issue would be the potential for freezing temps either Friday morning or Saturday morning.  At this point, I expect the wind speeds to remain to strong Friday morning to allow freezing temps for most locations.  It may be close, but we'll keep the Friday morning lows around 37 for this forecast cycle.  The RAW NAM does allow for freezing temps Friday morning.  But at this point, we're staying above.  Saturday morning could be close for a few valley locations across the northern third of the state.  This again, would be highly unusual.  I thought we were finished with these big cold air masses last week!   

The weekend continues to offer some differences regarding the outcome of the big mid-level low.  This low will attempt to "cut off" from the upper air flow Friday and could be lingering near the central plains for the weekend as the GFS data supports.  This would keep a small chance for showers in the forecast this weekend, but only across the northern third of the state into southern Kansas.  The EURO is well north of the state, with our friends in the Dakotas experiencing the influence of the upper low.  A huge difference regarding the two different models.   

The extended long range pattern would support another system approaching by the middle of next week. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 88 recorded at 3:16pm.

The normal daily average high is 76 and the low is 54.

Our daily records include a high of 91 from 1987 and 1959.  The record low is 35 from 1908.  

I'll be discussing the forecast this morning with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News.

You'll also hear my statewide forecast and regional discussions on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state.

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Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV