Monday Morning Update

Our weather was absolutely wonderful this weekend despite the small spotty showers we experienced Saturday and Sunday afternoon. We added these probabilities into the forecast Thursday and Friday due to the consistent signals in the data supporting the small chance of showers.  I must also stress that most folks across the state did not see any precip this weekend. 

Temps were very pleasant   Highs Saturday moved into the mid-70s but the colder air moved across the state Saturday night allowing Sunday morning lows to drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  The official low in Tulsa yesterday morning was 40 with afternoon highs region-wide in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Now on to the forecast!

The upper air pattern will bring another mid-level wave currently over the Baja into the region by Wednesday and Thursday with a chance for scattered thunderstorms   Similar to last week, this system is somewhat weak compared to a normal mid-May storm system.  There will be a chance for some strong storms, but the overall threat will be on the low end of the threat assessment system. 

The surface air flow will allow southwest surface winds to increase speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range during the next 36 hours.  The direction will be from the southwest both today and tomorrow during the afternoon and this may allow our surface temps to also climb into mid or even upper 80s.  Basically we're looking at 85 to 87 for highs early this week with a few locations nearing 90 tomorrow afternoon.  

The air flow should back from the southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin streaming northward as a surface area of low pressure will develop to our west or even southwest.  As this process occurs a few scattered showers or storms will be possible Wednesday morning to midday across eastern OK.  The clouds will act to keep the highs in the upper 70s near 80.  

The main upper level wave will slide eastward but with no surface air mass change.  A stronger upper level low will move across the northern plains by this weekend and could bring some energy to the state Saturday night into Sunday.  We are not expecting a surface cold front to move across the area until possibly sometime early next week.  This will keep the south winds in place along with moisture and the chance for a few showers or storms through the end of the week.  The bottom line:  the highest storm chances will occur Wednesday and Thursday with lessor chances Friday into the weekend.   

The official high in Tulsa's yesterday was 71 recorded at 4:53pm.  The Sunday morning low was 40 and tied a record low from 1960.

The normal daily average high is 79 and the low is 58.

Our daily records include a high of 93 from 1911 and a low of 41 from 1971.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

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You'll hear my state-wide forecast and regional weather discussions on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone