Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm Today Before Saturday Rain & Storms
TULSA, Oklahoma - The main focus for the weekend continues to be the storm system that will bring thunderstorms into eastern OK Saturday afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may be strong to severe. Some lingering rain will be likely Sunday morning with temperatures dropping from the upper 50s into the upper 40s by later in the afternoon. After a quick break Monday and Tuesday with some improving weather, a strong cold front will bring much colder air into the state Wednesday through the end of next week. Patchy fog is possible this morning across part of southeastern and east-central OK.
Some low level clouds may develop this morning as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico begins streaming across the area. Temperatures are mild with many locations into the upper 40s and lower 50s. A quick look at temp-dew spreads indicate the possibility of fog developing in some spots across the south and eastern sections of the state for the morning hours. Stronger south winds will develop later today as a surface area of low pressure deepens across northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas. Despite some cloud cover, we anticipate afternoon temperatures to move into the lower 70s with the metro nearing 74 along with south winds near 15 to 25 mph. No precipitation is expected today. But late tonight into early Saturday morning some drizzle or showers may attempt to develop ahead of the main system to our west.
Saturday the main upper level system of interest currently across the Pacific Northwest will expand southward and advance eastward across the southwestern U.S. Strong winds aloft will move across the state in the form of 70 to 80 knot winds in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. The main trough with even stronger winds will not clear the state until Sunday. This system will bring strong “lift” across the southern and central plains by Saturday afternoon and evening. A dry-line type feature will develop across part of western OK Saturday afternoon while a pacific cold front will move across northwestern OK by midday to afternoon. The front will eventually catch the dry line and storms will attempt to develop near the I-35 corridor region by midday to late afternoon. The scattered storms will eventually form a line or a few line segments of storms by the early evening hours and move eastward into Eastern Ok and western Arkansas Saturday evening and night with a threat of strong to severe storms. The wind profile during this part of the evening should promote more of a damaging wind threat with a few of the storms, but a few embedded tornadoes should not be ruled out, more so across southeastern OK and northeast TX. The model data suggest that pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible across part of eastern OK by Saturday evening but the short duration of the event should lessen any significant flooding threats.
Since the main upper level trough is not expected to clear the area until Sunday midday to afternoon, some Sunday morning showers will be likely. Temperatures may start in the upper 50s Sunday morning but drop into the upper 40s by afternoon. We’ll keep the inverted profile on the 7 day planner that will indicate dropping temperatures from the 50s into the 40s by the afternoon. Once the trough clears the area the showers will end. This should happen around midday to early afternoon.
Monday will feature the best weather day of week with morning lows in the lower to mid-30s and afternoon highs moving into the lower 60s.
Tuesday we’ll hit the upper 50s to near 60 but a strong cold front is expected to move across the state bringing a much colder air-mass into the state that may last for several days late next week.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!