Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Pleasant Weekend, Colder Early Next Week
As you can see on the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, this has been a very pleasant day for early February. Keep in mind our normal daytime high at this time of year is in the low 50s, and most locations were at or above that.
The weekend is looking promising as well, after a weak system moves across the state tonight. Cloudy skies and a slight chance of some sprinkles or even a few brief snow flurries for the overnight hours will give way to clearing skies during the morning and lots of sunshine for the rest of the day Saturday and much of the day Sunday.
This system will produce a brief wind shift with a light NW breeze in the morning shifting back to a light SW breeze by afternoon. With all the sunshine, look for afternoon temperatures to bounce back into the 50s after starting off in the lower 30s.
A stronger wind shift and cold front will arrive on Sunday, with gusty NW winds expected by afternoon through the overnight hours and for much of the day Monday. The colder air will be somewhat delayed in reaching us, and since this will be another dry system we should still make it well into the 50s on Sunday followed by colder conditions on Monday, as you can see on our forecast page. The primary issue will be the gusty winds on Sun/Mon which will create fire danger concerns once again.
Although Monday and Tuesday will be much colder, the real brunt of the colder air will be east of us as we will only receive a glancing blow. Notice the projected surface temperatures for Tue evening, for example, which clearly shows the coldest air well east of OK and down into the SE States.
That will be followed by moderating temperatures going into the rest of the week and for Valentine’s Day weekend. Although some additional frontal boundaries will be moving through the area, with shifting winds on just about any given day, the long-range guidance continues to keep the storm track well removed from the state.
Notice the 7-day QPF map which has us pretty much high and dry. The light amounts over the more SE counties are due to what may fall with the activity that happens overnight tonight.
After that, it is pretty much a dry forecast; that may well extend beyond this forecast cycle as you can see on the 8-14-day outlook graphics. They continue to show us with temperatures averaging above normal through that time frame and little in the way of any active weather.
So, enjoy this stable pattern over the next week or two as, eventually, the storm track and the position of the jet stream will bring more active weather our way. We just do not see that anytime soon.