Finally, Fall Has Arrived.

Notice the rains over the last 24 hours as of mid-afternoon and then compare that to the rainfall totals over the last 3 days.  Some areas received too much too fast once again, but at least the rains over the course of this event have been more widespread and have finally brought some useful totals to sections of the state that have largely missed out over the last few months.

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This system also brought with it quite a change in temperatures.  Here is the 24 hour temperature change map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  Since we were about 10-15 degrees warmer than normal yesterday, we have more than made up for that today with temperatures running about 10 degrees cooler than normal this afternoon.

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The cooler, drier air that those gusty northerly winds have brought over the state today will make tonight the coolest so far this season.  Clear skies and a light northerly breeze should allow temperatures to bottom out in the lower 40s for most, but some upper 30s will be possible in the normally cooler valleys and that could even produce some patches of frost.

That will be followed by sunny skies all day Saturday, a light NE breeze, and afternoon temperatures topping out in the mid 70s.  By way of reference, the normal max/min for Tulsa at this time of year is 76/53.

Sunday will also be very pleasant with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the 70s along with a light, but more E/SE surface wind.  The only real difference will be an increase in mid-high level cloud cover during the course of the day as a weak system aloft moves overhead.  However, this system will be moisture starved so only an increase in cloud cover is expected.

Then, as you can see on our forecast page, temperatures look to warm back to above normal levels going into early next week along with a return to southerly winds.  However, the longer range guidance is once again diverging by the middle of the week.  Some of the guidance suggests another front moving into the state along with a chance of showers by the Wed/Thu time frame which may even linger into Friday.  Other guidance is not nearly as bullish, so will introduce just a slight chance of rain for now and see how later data runs handle this system.

That system will also knock temperatures back at least somewhat for the middle to latter part of the week, but another warm-up should follow in time for that following weekend.  By and large, this all adds up to a beautiful fall weekend followed by a relatively quiet week ahead, barring any surprises.

Looking further down the road, the 8-14 day outlook continues with a strong signal of above normal temperatures through that period.  That would most likely translate to daytime highs holding in the lower 80s and overnight lows well into the 50s or perhaps even low 60s.   The 8-14 day outlook is also keeping our chances of additional moisture in the below normal category.  So, after the active weather of the last several days, it looks like a relatively quiet pattern over the next week or two.

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In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot