TULSA, Oklahoma - A fast short-wave is exiting the area early this morning after producing a few small showers last night and will bring mostly pleasant weather in its wake across northern Oklahoma today before clouds and showers will return Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of our next stronger system arriving Wednesday.  Storms will be possible Wednesday including the threat of some heavy rainfall and the possibility of strong to severe storms across the southern plains.  The data is unclear on the exact location of severe weather potential with the GFS slightly more northward with the parameters compared to the EURO.  As the system exits the area Wednesday evening we’ll experience cooler weather Thursday with gusty north winds before warming back into the 60s into the weekend.   Some patchy fog is possible this morning for some locations before the sunshine and pleasant weather arrive for most of the day.  Morning lows will be in the 30s to 40s with daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s.   South winds will prevail today around 10 mph.

Our next weather maker is organizing off the Western Alaska coast as a broad trough and will quickly move down the west coast Tuesday while become more closed late Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Baja region.   This feature will eject eastward into the southern and central plains Wednesday.   Tuesday afternoon and evening south winds will bring warm and moist air back into the state with scattered showers and some thunder becoming more clustered across the eastern third of the state.   Severe weather is not expected. 

Wednesday a surface low will be positioned across southeastern Colorado or possibly northwestern Oklahoma and will translate eastward across the state Wednesday afternoon and evening.   A dry line associated with the low will extend north to south while a pacific front will lag the boundary until later Wednesday evening.   Strong south winds will be likely Wednesday with morning lows in the 50s and daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s with cloudy conditions.   Showers and storms will be more likely to develop Wednesday midday to afternoon as the above-mentioned trough moves closer to the state.  Some of the storms could be strong to severe but the exact location of the true warm sector remains up for grabs at this point.  The more favorable locations for surface based storms may be located across far southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas, like the last system that arrived this weekend.   But, more work will be likely before this becomes confident. The recent heavy rainfall across east central and southern Oklahoma is resulting in rising rivers and creeks.   The next round may also prompt some flooding concerns for some of these same areas.  

 Regardless, the system will move eastward by late Wednesday taking the storms out of the area with gusty north winds and cooler weather arriving Thursday with morning lows in the mid to upper 30s and daytime highs in the 50s.   The next system should arrive Sunday into Monday with a few showers or storms.  Our weather Thursday through Saturday appears pleasant and uneventful with Thursday featuring the coolest day with highs in the mid to upper 50s after morning lows in the 30s.  Friday and Saturday will be positioned with lows in the 30s and highs in the 60s.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.