Improving Weather Thursday Before A Cold Weekend
TULSA, Oklahoma - The drizzle and fog will quickly end this morning with clouds beginning to break around midday allowing some sunshine for the 2nd half of the day. Our temperatures are above freezing this morning with no threats of icing across northeastern Oklahoma.
Locations across far eastern sections may keep the clouds until very late this afternoon. Temperatures should climb back into the lower 50s along with northwest winds around 10 to 15 mph for the metro with a few others staying in the upper 40s. We’re still tracking two more systems, including the blast of cold air arriving Friday night into Saturday morning. Before this arrives, south winds will return later tonight and bring moisture and relatively warmer weather back into the area tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s or even lower 60s.
As the pressure falls to our west tomorrow morning, a few spotty showers could be possible tomorrow morning to midday, but most data support our chances arriving late tomorrow afternoon and evening as the main storm system nears the state. Enough instability will remain present for a few rumbles of thunder across northeastern Oklahoma and even a slight chance of a few strong to near severe storms across extreme southeastern Oklahoma, more so into northeast Texas. The front is scheduled to arrive late Friday night into the early hours of Saturday with strong north winds and falling temperatures into early Saturday morning.
As the cold air sweeps across the area, any leftover moisture will flip to some wintry precip, including the potential for some snow along the I-44 corridor region and northeastern Oklahoma as the upper level trough quickly moves near our area. Most data suggesting between a dusting to near 2 inches in spots with a small area of 2 to 4 inches possible depending upon the exact track of the upper air system.
This part of the forecast may still change. Strong northwest winds and very cold weather will persist for Saturday before wind speeds ease into Sunday morning. The data yesterday suggested the system was speeding up. And this morning’ outputs continue with this trend. The result will be a faster exit of the cold air Sunday.
Saturday morning will start in the mid-30s and quickly fall into the mid-20s along with northwest winds from 20 to 30 mph with a few higher gusts. Wind chills will drop from the teens into the single digits by late Saturday afternoon and evening. Sunday morning lows should be starting in the teens. Still very cold, but several degrees warmer than data suggested three days ago. Sunday afternoon temps should now move into the upper 30s north and some 40s south with some sunshine along with north winds shifting to the south around 10 to 15 mph.
Again, still cold, but not the magnitude of cold air suggested by the data three days ago.
Our next upper level wave is scheduled to arrive across the central plains Monday night into Tuesday bringing another front across the area Tuesday morning with a slight chance of a few showers. At this point, the snow chances will remain slightly north of the state. Before this Tuesday system arrives, strong south winds will return Monday with morning lows in the upper 20s and highs in the 40s.
Regarding Friday into Saturday: Our main upper level system is just now entering the pacific northwest and should soon be better sampled in the upper air balloon observation system later today. This should result in a better handle on the exact track and strength of the upper level trough that will influence our weather Friday night into Saturday. Until this happens, part of the Saturday forecast could still change including location and amounts of snowfall.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.