For the third morning in a row, we’re dealing with scattered showers near and northwest of the Tulsa metro for the next few hours. Additional scattered showers with some thunder will remain possible today but the coverage should be smaller compared to yesterday afternoon. The old Gordon circulation, hereafter referred to as the low, will continue to slowly move northwest into southern Arkansas later today and into western Arkansas Friday before exiting into southern Missouri Saturday morning. While the actual low will remain across western Arkansas Friday, it will be close enough to keep some mentions for rain across eastern Oklahoma, including the Tulsa metro. But the higher chances and the higher potential for significant rainfall will remain across a small area of extreme eastern Oklahoma and points well eastward. Greater coverage of heavy rainfall should be confined to northwestern Arkansas. I should state that forecast confidence remains somewhat low and additional changes are possible.
Today we’re dealing with scattered showers with possibly some thunder on the periphery of the mid Atlantic ridge of high pressure and on the western edge of subsidence associated with the low. This sinking air will have a tendency to keep locations on the western and southwestern side of the low precip free today and this evening as the low migrate northwest. This means part of far southeastern Oklahoma to northeast Texas may not receive any precip today while locations near and northwest of the metro will remain active with spotty activity. Temps today will be in the mid-80s along with north winds around 10 to 20 mph. Rain-cooled pockets of some upper 70s will remain possible.
Later tonight into Friday morning rain will begin advancing into part of Arkansas into far eastern Oklahoma. These bands will be moving from the northeast to southwest Friday with the higher likelihood for heavy rainfall confined to far eastern Oklahoma. Friday evening as the low nears just east of Fayetteville, heavy rainfall will be likely from extreme southeastern Kansas across far northeastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas. The low will begin exiting our influence early Saturday morning with improving conditions for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. Drier air, in the form of 50-degree dew point temps will swing down from the Missouri Valley into northeastern Oklahoma Sunday into Monday creating very pleasant weather regarding temperatures.
The forecast for the metro region will keep mentions for showers this morning before decreasing later today with highs in the lower to mid-80s. Friday’s chance for the metro will remain near 40% with increasing chances eastward to the state line region. Locations along or east of Coffeyville to Vinita to Tahlequah will have higher chances Friday into the evening. Locations near Baxter Springs to Grand Lake to Fayetteville will likely experience some heavy rainfall Friday evening into Saturday morning before ending by early to mid-morning. Our chances in the metro Saturday morning will continue around 30% for a few hours before gradually decreasing. Only the 12kNAM has pulled a reversal with higher pops Saturday. We’ll regard this run as an outlier. At least for now!
This forecast remains a moving target due to the positioning of the low and may still change some over the next 36 to 48 hours.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.