It doesn’t look like the end of July and the beginning of August. At least from the viewpoint of the upper air pattern. The dominant ridge is located well west of the region with a trough across the eastern third of the nation. Typically, the ridge would be centered over the plains with hot and dry weather the expectation. Obviously, this is not the case.
Another short wave will move out of the Yukon region and down the northwest flow this weekend while deepening. This will eventually cause a system to develop and move across the southern and central plains with rain and thunderstorms likely Sunday into Monday including the potential for heavy rainfall through Monday morning. Before this occurs, another smaller scale disturbance will move down the flow into the northern Rockies this morning and generate more thunderstorms across the front range by afternoon. Later tonight these storms will congeal into a larger storm complex ( MCS) and dive southeast into the western half of the state late this evening into pre-dawn Saturday before continuing eastward mid morning across part of eastern Oklahoma. We have increased the pops for the Saturday system and will also be increasing the rain and storm chances for Sunday into Monday. The QPF numbers are increasing and some heavy rainfall threats may eventually unfold for part of the region through this period. Most of the severe weather threats tonight and pre-dawn Saturday will be west of our area with hail and wind the main issues. A few strong to severe storms will remain possible this weekend across eastern OK with damaging winds the main threats outside of the heavy rainfall issues.
Not to be left out, a few small showers or storms may continue near or southwest of the metro this morning before exiting the area with most of today remaining dry and warm for the region. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with a return of east to southeast winds by midday to afternoon.
The temperature forecast for the rest of the period should present lower than average readings with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday for eastern Oklahoma and lower to mid-80s Sunday into most of next week. Yet climatology would suggest we should be moving into the hottest period of the year, this does not appear to be the case with our upper air pattern for the next two weeks.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.