A heat advisory will be issued for many counties across northeastern Oklahoma today with heat index values reaching from 105 to 109 in some locations through the afternoon.
Actual temps will top out in the upper 90s, along with a relatively light southeast wind around 5 to 15 mph.
Another chance for a few widely spaced scattered or isolated showers and storms will remain today and tomorrow but most locations will remain dry.
We did have a few spotty showers in northern Tulsa County yesterday with a few thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma.
While the chances will remain very low for any given location, there will be a few folks in the precip later this afternoon on occasion. Precip loaders with a wet micro burst can’t be ruled out but seems a very low probability.
The main forecast thinking hasn’t changed much from previous updates. We’re basically throwing out most of the model output statistics and using more of a persistence based forecasting scenario - this means our forecast will mostly be based on the philosophy of what happened yesterday will more than likely continue to happen today.
While the GFS continues to offer a front nearing the state Saturday night into Sunday with a few storms possible, we'll keep this boundary north of the region as a mid-level ridge of high pressure may be the dominant feature Friday through most of the weekend. I do think the ridge will flatten Saturday evening and possibly allow a few central Kansas storms to float southward near the state line by Sunday night into Monday morning, but the odds of any significant precip will remain very low and mostly to our north.
The pattern will continue to be followed for the forecast for most of next week until Wednesday into Thursday when the upper flow should allow a front to enter at least northern Oklahoma before possibly stalling. While the output in the data is suggesting some lower readings for these periods, we’re sticking with highs nearing 100 early next week until we have a higher confidence in some lower readings.
We’ll eventually be dealing with some storm chances sometime around the middle to end of next week.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.